Old Mother Hubbard: The Defensive Ends

>> 2.02.2012

Pantry

From last year’s Old Mother Hubbarding of the Lions defensive ends:

Cliff Avril was pigeonholed by most as a 3-4 ROLB, and I’m certain he could shine in that role. But he’s developed into the fast, athletic 4-3 rush end Rod Marinelli thought he could be. Avril will never be a 270-plus-pound, two-way monster—but he’s already an impact defender, top-flite pass rusher, and a huge part of this defense going forward. Signing this RFA to a long-term deal must be a top priority.

Kyle Vanden Bosch is the ultimate leader, a consummate professional—and as a player, the yang to Cliff Avril’s yin. Had he stayed healthy, he would have had seven sacks and fifteen QB hits, more than acceptable standalone production, besides the undeniable halo effect. Unfortunately, he’s 32, and recovering from a major neck injury. The Lions need to find a starting, impact, two-way end to replace him by the 2012 season.

Lawrence Jackson produced like an above-average starter in heavy rotation, and fron Week 10 on was one of the better 4-3 DEs in the game. I’ll hold off on anointing him the starter of the future for now, because I’d like to see more consistency—but there’s no doubt he’d be the perfect physical fit for the void KVB will eventually leave.

Willie Young is a developmental prospect with a very lean frame, a long way to go, and an undeniable knack for playing football. I hope he has a place on the roster for next season.

And then, the shopping list:

The Lions will need to find an impact two-way defensive end, ready to replace KVB as a starter by the 2012 season. Lawrence Jackson has the potential to be that end. Cliff Avril is an RFA who must be re-signed to a long-term deal. The Lions may look for a developmental speed-first end behind Avril, especially if Willie Young does not take major strides in the offseason.

It's important to restate the design goals of the Lions defensive line: to get consistent, excellent pressure from the without assist from the blitz. To have a pair of bookend DEs rushing from wide alignments, fast enough to turn the corner and strong enough to set the edge against runs and screens. To have two defensive tackles who can rush the passer up the middle of the pocket, one of whom can also collapse the running lane between himself and the nine-technique DE. Most importantly, to have depth all across the line, making sure the above design requirements are fulfilled for four quarters each of sixteen (-plus) games.

Now, that in mind, let’s look at the data:

detroit_lions_defensive_ends_2011_grades

For the second straight year, Philadelphia’s Trent Cole is the highest overall PFF-graded 4-3 DE. With the #1 overall pass-rush grade of +40.4, and the 11th-best run-stopping grade at +10.3, Cole fulfilled his responsibilities in the Eagles’ own wide-9 alignment perfectly. His two-way dominance was so complete, he kept his top overall mark despite being called for seven penalties in 640 snaps. Interestingly, Cole’s 1.00 +WPA is only ranked 23rd, and his 32.3 +EPA is 27th. For all his consistently positive play, Cole didn’t help the Eagles win much. May have something to do with the rest of the defense behind him.

Bringing up the rear is the New York Giants’ Dave Tollefson, whose –9.4 rush grade and –5.5 run-stopping grade put him at the bottom. His 0.36 and 10.0 +WPA and +EPA rank him 79th and 86th, respectively, out of 125 defensive ends ranked by Advanced NFL Stats.

Important note: Pro Football Focus separates linemen into DT/NTs, 4-3 DEs, and 3-4 DEs. Advanced NFL Stats has one bucket each for DTs and DEs. The two sites do not always agree on who is what.

Cliff Avril is another example of why I added+WPA and +EPA to these radar charts. When you add up all his positive, negative, and nothing-in-particular plays, he’s an average NFL defensive end. His +6.6 overall PFF grade almost exactly matches the NFL average of +6.5. That includes a pretty heavy ding for 11 assessed penalties, but a major boost from his linebacker-like coverage skills (+5.5). His pass rush grade is solid, ranked 19th overall at +11, but confusingly low for a guy who had 12 sacks, 8 hits, and 37 pressures on 822 snaps (one of those pass rush events per 14.7 snaps, 15th-best rate in the NFL).

For comparison, Trent Cole had 11 sacks, 11 QB hits, and 44 pressures on 640 snaps, one every 9.55 snaps (2nd-best). For further comparison, Jared Allen had 24 sacks, 8 QB hits, and 34 pressures on 1044 snaps—one every 15.8 snaps. Just putting that out there.

So from looking at just the PFF grades and stats, we’d mark Avril down as an average overall defensive end, pretty good at rushing the passer but otherwise mediocre. Then, we look at the +WPA and +EPA and whoa.

Avril’s +EPA is an excellent 45.1, 11th-best in the NFL; that’s well ahead of Cole’s 32.3 (Jason Pierre-Paul’s is tops at 83.4).  His +WPA is an outstanding 7th overall, at +1.45. The discrepancy comes from his impact plays: 4 passes defensed, 6 forced fumbles, 7 TFLs, and an interception. In terms of +WPA, it’s his knack for making big plays at the right times. He helped the Lions’ win-loss bottom line 45% more than Trent Cole helped the Eagles’.

Just as with the defensive tackles, we see Lions defensive ends—as a rule—make big plays when they matter most, far out of proportion to the rest of their production. Avril, though, takes that to the extreme. Keep in mind, he’s doing it from the left side, too: going against bigger/stronger right tackles and often in the quarterback’s field of vision. Imagine if he were working the blind side . . .

Bottom Line: Cliff Avril, in this system, plays like a top ten defensive end. If he is not re-signed, his production and playmaking ability will not be easily replaced—and his production and playmaking ability is essential to the success of the defense. His re-signing must be the Lions’ top priority.

Willie Young, a.k.a. The Great Willie Young, might indeed be the son of a panther god. His +11.7 overall PFF grade would be the highest of any Lions DE, if his 259 snaps weren’t just a few too few to qualify. His +10.2 pass rush grade is just behind Avril’s +11.0, and his run-stopping grade is far superior, +3.7 to –2.5. In a huge surprise, the not-as-spindly-as-he-used-to-be Young’s run defense was better than all but Lawrence Jackson’s.

Again, this is on limited snaps—and that cuts both ways. Young makes fantastic plays whenever he’s in the game, but he’s in the game most often when the situation is ripe for him to make plays. His 3 sacks, 4 hits, and 19 pressures put his snaps-per-pass-rush at 9.96 which would be third-best in the NFL if he’d played just thirty or so more snaps.

I believe that’s at least part of Trent Cole’s story above: he played 182 fewer snaps than Cliff Avril, and I’d be willing to bet a good chunk of “negative” plays were eliminated because of it. It’s a lot easier to be great against the run when you only have to do it on 2nd- and 3rd-and-long . . .

Still, Young’s +11.5 EPA and +0.47 +WPA speak to just how effective he was when he was in. The average +WPA for qualifying DEs was 0.61, meaning that in just 259 snaps Willie Young helped the Lions win almost as much as an average starter. Nobody put much stock in a sub-260-pound all-legs-and-no-torso seventh rounder developing into a vital contributor, but Young’s already there in just his second year. How much better can he get?

Bottom Line: Willie Young has proven his worth as a rotational end, and should be a big part of the picture for 2012, his make-or-break year. If he can shoulder an increased workload without his rate stats falling off, he’ll be every bit the player Cliff Avril has been. That is an enormous “if.”

Lawrence Jackson had an outstanding 2011, producing at the same level as Avril and KVB when he got reps. The natural big-bodied run-stuffer Avril isn’t, he seemed destined to take over on the left side as Avril transitioned to the right rush end spot.

Instead, Jackson played almost exclusively on the right side, in relief of KVB. He struggled against Tampa Bay, but had strongly positive games in Weeks 2-5. His season crescendoed on Monday Night Football, with a +3.4 overall grade (1 sack, 1 hit, 2 pressures on just 31 snaps). After that game, however, Jackson had three flat games before Week 10—where he graded out very well and suffered a deep thigh bruise that would bench him until Week 16.

You can’t help but feel like Jackson missed his opportunity to stake his claim as the Lions’ third-now-and-second-soon DE. However, Jackson’s 18.4 +EPA is a very positive sign; he nearly matched the NFL average of 21.07 with just 341 snaps. His 0.71 +WPA is an even better one: with less than half the snaps of a typical starting DE to work with, Lo-Jack contributed more to the Lions’ winning games than some other teams’ starters . . . unfortunately, that includes the Lions’ Kyle Vanden Bosch.

Bottom Line: Lawrence Jackson had a chance to prove to the Lions they were set at this position for years to come. Instead, his deep thigh bruise—and midseason lull—leaves us no closer to knowing if he’ll be ready to step in for KVB as a full-time starter when the time comes. However, he also flashed enough of that Secret Superstar form to prove he can play as well as anyone in the NFL when he’s “on.” Like Willie Young, 2012 will be his make-or-break year.

Kyle Vanden Bosch had a fantastic bounceback year, right? With 8 sacks, 6 QB hits, and 26 pressures, this was his best statistical year since the glory days of 2008. Unfortunately, he had a beefy 777-snap workload, meaning he only generated pass rush on one of every 19.4 snaps—35th-best in the NFL and below the 19.0 NFL average.

Vanden Bosch's -11.3 overall PFF grade is absolutely mortifying; it's the fourth-worst in the NFL. He was graded at –1.9 in the pass rush, definitely below the NFL average of +2.5. His run-stopping grade, however, was through the basement: –7.9, worse than everyone but St. Louis’s Chris Long. We saw this time and time again in the games: Vanden Bosch overpursuing like a maniac, and opposing teams scheming to take advantage.

Vanden Bosch improved in this area throughout the season. He got dinged with strong negative run-defense grades in Weeks 2, 3, 4, 6, and 7, but only once more after that. Unfortunately, that coincided with a huge dropoff in his pass-rush productivity. He had only one negative pass rush grade in the first ten games, then was in the red for Weeks 12, 13, 15, and 16.

KVB is the only Lion DE not to add Win Probability far beyond what his snap count and production would project: Despite those 8 sacks, he almost exactly met the NFL average with 0.58 +WPA. His 26.30 +EPA is solidly above-average, but that just highlights the fact that he got it done more often when it didn’t matter than when it did.

Bottom Line: Kyle Vanden Bosch’s time as a premier two-way defensive end is over. His heart, desire, toughness, and leadership are unquestionable, but he’s simply not getting it done as well or as frequently as the rest of the defensive ends. Without finding the fountain of youth, he cannot start and play the majority of every game in 2012 or the defense will suffer for it.

SHOPPING LIST: The Detroit Lions have some serious decisions to make at the Defensive End position, and have little information to go on. Kyle Vanden Bosch must recover his youthful form or play a reduced role in 2012. Cliff Avril is a proven game-changer but not under contract. Willie Young and Lawrence Jackson have played extremely well in limited time but are not proven full-time performers.

If the Lions have complete faith in Young, Jackson, or both they are set for defensive ends. If not, they need to acquire a defensive end who can step in and play at least as well as Vanden Bosch, if not better, in 2012.

14 comments:

Armchair Linebacker February 2, 2012 at 6:06 PM  

"Nobody put much stock in a sub-260-pound all-legs-and-no-torso seventh rounder developing into a vital contributor, but Young’s already there in just his second year. How much better can he get?"

I know one person who did . . .

No, but really, even I have been pleasantly surprised by the Great One's emergence. At times he just looks extraordinarily explosive out there. He made the tackle trying to block him look completely silly a few times this past season.

Good write-up, Ty. This is always one of my favorite features.

Adam Ryden February 2, 2012 at 8:38 PM  

Just want to say Ty these are probably the best off-season write-ups out there. Last year's was great and your analysis this year is even more insightful. I look forward to the rest of the series.

That being said, you point out the 2nd biggest question right now besides the "If" on signing Avril. What will we do with KVB? Everyone loves him, and we all agree he provides great leadership. However, with Schwartz being a numbers guy, if this were a business decision, not an emotional one, KVB will have to take a cut or be cut. This is the first time we see how Schwartz values loyalty with his personal. I'm interested to see how this plays out.

popeww,  February 3, 2012 at 7:13 AM  

i think paying big money for avril is a mistake. i have a few reasons.

1, he has always seemed to play poorly for the first 3/4 of every season, only to come on strong the last few (usually meaningless) weeks and pad his stats. now he has translated that tendency into having a great contract year after several years of inconsistency.

2, with the $$ we are going to have to wrap up in calvin, the $$ we have into stafford, and the still pressing needs at CB, LB, S, and OL, i don't think he's worth what it's going to cost to sign him because...

3, a lot of his success, IMO, is owed to the rest of the line (namely the DT's.) and the wide 9 scheme. this says to me that we can replace him for less money with a willie young or lo-jack type and still get great production.

summary: while we can't just line up a nobody way outside and expect them to produce because the rest of the line is great, we can line up a player of comparable ability and get the same production due to the scheme and the talent on the line, probably for as little as 5 million if we spend wisely, or we could start somebody we already have such as willie or lo-jack and draft another willie young type, or sign another lo-lack type.

the teams that have sustained success in this league don't break the bank to re-sign players like avril. they let other teams like the old lions overpay for free agents.

AD90,  February 3, 2012 at 8:24 AM  

He closed the game against the Cowboys by putting Tyron Smith on his arse and sacking Romo.

arctorzalterego,  February 3, 2012 at 9:13 AM  

Ty, this is another great post. You gotta add some widgets to share/like these on Facebook and tweet them. More people should be coming here to check your stuff out. (unless I'm dense and you already have them and I'm just not seeing them, which is possible.)

Flamekeeper_Ty,  February 3, 2012 at 9:17 AM  

actorzalterego--

Thanks! I've turned those on in Blogger, but they never show up. Maybe something with the CSS, I don't know . . . I beat my head against the wall on it several times.

The audience here is relatively small but quite fanatic. The comment section has died out a bit in the past year as a lot of the top commenters have gotten on Twitter and hit me up there.

Thanks again for the kudos!

Peace
Ty

Flamekeeper_Ty,  February 3, 2012 at 9:22 AM  

Thanks, Adam!

Yeah, the KVB situation is a very tricky one. How do you plan for KVB to have a reduced role? How do you even bring the situation up, especially on the heels of an eight-sack year?

He'll fight tooth and nail to keep that starting job--but if he gets superceded on the depth chart, will he even want to play? I don't think he'll take on the role of "veteran mascot" very well.

KVB is awesome and can still play, but this defense needs someone generating about 150% as much pressure.

Peace
Ty

Flamekeeper_Ty,  February 3, 2012 at 9:26 AM  

Thanks, man. It's wild to see his knack for making plays. The way he stops the run fascinates me; he uses his positioning and technique to make up for his lack of size and strength. It's like Backus in reverse.

Flamekeeper_Ty,  February 3, 2012 at 9:26 AM  

That's right! Probably a big factor in his +WPA.

Jeremy February 3, 2012 at 11:26 AM  

I'm curious about these EPA and WPA stats. Admittedly, I don't know much about them, but I wonder how sustainable some of these numbers are. Big plays come and go. This happened to be a big year in defensive plays for the Lions, and while a ton of credit goes to the players who made those plays (especially Avril), I wonder if they can possibly keep creating those plays consistently year after year.

All that aside, I do expect big changes this year. I always get giddy at the thought of drafting another elite DE and this year is no exception. I haven't started any draft research but if a solid DE is available at 23, I would pull the trigger.

Dennis Schwartz February 3, 2012 at 11:26 AM  

As i have stated before Ty, this is where this blog shines!

I would consider myself more a feel person when in comes to observing talent and its impact on the team, but I have a profound appreciation for the lengths you go to bring this data together.

In previous posts I came to the same issue of what to do with KVB as you have indicated. I think KVBs leadership was astronomical when he initial signed here; however I think that if someone re-examined that construct they may find that the weight of his leadership would not resonate as much this year.

I think Avril and Suh are more than capable of demonstrating the accountability and tenacity that KVB stood for. I would lean more towards Avril and that is why I agree with you Ty that it is imperative that he be resigned LONGTERM (not tagged) this offseason.

It always pains me to envision letting someone go who took a chance on a moribund franchise as KVB did with the Lions, and I can just imagine what Schwartz (not me) is going through with this decision.

This isn't just some singular transaction either, it carries great weight because of the implications of letting someone go of his magnitude could have an effect on his teammates.

The shrewd, and prudent decision, is to let him go; but I would not be surprised to see him here next year.

Nick Cramer,  February 5, 2012 at 10:52 PM  

Ty,

I think you are dead on here about KVB. The thing that I am curious about is if KVB may become a trading piece. Mayhew has said that he wants to be active in the trade market and I can't help but think that a team like say Tampa Bay who is hurting for veteran presence, might look past his down year and towards his positive locker room presence. I do not know what KVB would be worth on the trade market but I could easily see him being a part of a player v. player trade or a swap of picks plus KVB. I could also see something like this happening with Corey Williams who if I remember right has like 4 mil against this years cap.

Imperical Evidence,  February 8, 2012 at 3:01 AM  

Avril average? Lets not forget the 6 forced fumbles, second in all the NFL to only Terrelle Suggs, a LB. That's why I don't use Pro Football Focus. I know the sack stats are off, but calling Avril an average defensive end is horrible.

Anonymous,  February 9, 2012 at 8:07 PM  

Funny how this (his last year in his rookie contract) was the first on where Cliff Advil didn't miss a game.

What a coincidence ...

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