In Defense of the Detroit Lions Offensive line

>> 10.06.2011


For decades the Lions offensive line has been a punching bag, both in physical and philosophical terms. This season is no different: fans have howled about the five-sack disaster in Minnesota, the abundance of penalties, and the continued inability to run impressively between the tackles. Nearly every Lions offensive lineman (excepting Rob Sims) has heard calls for his head on a pike, and it’s just barely October.

Line play was always one of the intricacies of the game; secret mojo that casual fans don’t perceive. Certain players or units are so consistently outstanding that analysts take pains to point them out, though, so most fans are dimly aware of “good” and “bad,” especially in terms of the quarterback’s time to throw.

Still, even hardcore fans can’t evaluate the offensive line in one full-speed viewing—at least, not without ignoring stuff like the ball and the outcome of the play. For the most part, fans judge their team’s offensive lines by the totality of their effort: number of sacks, number of penalties, average time to throw, perceived running lanes.

In recent years, though, the explosion of football information—and tools like DVR and NFL Game Rewind—lets us go back and see who really allowed Jared Allen’s sacks. Sort of.

If modern technology and analysis provide fans with a treasure trove of ways to evaluate their teams’ offensive line, what fans lack is any way to objectively compare that performance against others. When Cris Carter insisted Calvin Johnson is not an “elite” wide receiver, I slathered Carter’s good name in statistical napalm and lit a match.

When Lions fans say the offensive line “sucks,” I have few weapons with which to defend their honor—despite being sure the Lions’ line is a solid pass-blocking unit, and not a terrible run-blocking unit either. ESPN’s Ross Tucker explains:

It's not their fault. Or at least not entirely. That is the only logical explanation that can be drawn about the quality of offensive line play at the quarter pole of the NFL season.

Before you assume that this is a column written by a former offensive lineman attempting to absolve his trench brethren of their inadequacies, consider the facts. If close to 75 percent of the fans in the NFL think their teams' offensive line stinks, maybe the problem isn't actually the offensive line but rather what they are being asked to do?

At a minimum, fans and media alike need to look at the number of teams unhappy with offensive line play and realize that maybe this is the new normal. If that is the standard of performance for more than half of the teams in the league, then that is, by definition, the average.

Of course, the Internet’s gold standard in hardcore game footage review and line play evaluation is Pro Football Focus. I looked at the PFF team pass blocking grades over this year, last year, and the year before.



Pro Football Focus Team Pass Block Grade distribution, as charted by Ty at The Lions in Winter

This is the distribution of PFF team pass block grades for 2009, 2010, and 2011 to date. The X axis is standard deviation from the mean, and the Y axis is the number of teams who fall into the half-standard-deviation tiers. “-3.0” is three standard deviations below the mean, “0” is the mean, and “+3.0” is three standard deviations above the mean.

The first thing that jumps out at you is the way the 2009 line appears to disappear. In fact, 2009 and 2010 had the exact same distribution above the mean: eight teams between the mean and one-half standard deviation above, six teams between +0.5 and +1, five teams between +1 and +1.5, and no teams two standard deviations or more above the mean. In both seasons, then 19 teams were graded above the mean.

In both seasons there was a hearty group of “above average” pass blocking lines; the majority of NFL offensive lines were a little bit better than the mean. On the downside of those two slopes, the distributions are similar. They seesaw with a gap of two or three teams from -0.5 down to -2.5, where they each have one. Both years share an overall shape: a few awful teams, several bad teams, some “meh” teams, then most of the NFL is between “okay” to “good,” with just a few “pretty good” pass-blocking lines and no “very good” or “great” ones.

A quarter of the way through this year, a different shape is emerging. Only 16 teams are grading out above the median, meaning four fewer “good” or “pretty good” pass-blocking lines. The Tennessee Titans are that outlying bump at +2.5; an entire standard deviation above the second-best Buffalo Bills.

After that, though, it’s more bad news: nine teams are at least 1.5 standard deviations below the mean, compared to four in 2010 and six in 2009. That’s 28% of the league’s offensive lines at “bad” or worse!

Now here’s the interesting bit. We see that so far in 2010, there are fewer relatively “good” pass-blocking lines and more relatively “bad” ones. But that’s only relative to each other in the same season. What about year-over-year?

PFF normalizes all of their grades, meaning these grades aren’t just the raw scores. The first season they graded (2008), they adjusted the grades so they averaged out to zero. In subsequent seasons, they’ve normalized their grades with the same factors as from 2008—meaning, grades from 2009 and 2010 and 2011 will compare directly to 2008 (and each other).

Look at 2009’s mean: -0.22, or almost exactly zero. This means that PFF’s raw pass-blocking grades (and in theory, leaguewide pass-blocking performance) was almost identical from 2008 to 2009. But in 2010 that mean dropped to -18.56. In 2009, a team that graded out at -18.56 would have been binned in the “-0.5 to -1.0” tier! If we do an incredibly crude projection of this season’s grades (multiply by four), the average 2011 team will grade out at -24.99, very nearly a full standard deviation below 2009’s mean!

This implies that leaguewide pass blocking performance has declined dramatically from recent norms. Not only has the distribution changed so that more teams are “bad” at pass blocking while fewer are “good,” the standards for “bad” and “good” are noticeably lower. [Ed. - Upon further review, I added a second chart. Was in danger of violating 1 picture/thousand words rule.]

imageHere’s a better way of seeing the year-over-year change: the 2009 grades are an almost perfect expected distribution between extremes, norms, positives, and negatives. The 2010 grades have a nearly-identical shape, just with an across-the-board decrease. The 2011 grades, though crudely projected, again reflect a change in distribution: there are far more bad-to-awful lines, and far fewer decent-to-good ones.

PFF detractors will be quick to claim this as proof of flaws in their methodology; that’s certainly possible. But it dovetails perfectly with what Ross Tucker has observed: teams are passing at a ridiculous rate, and increasingly using tight ends and running backs as targets, rather than blockers. They’re hanging their offensive linemen out to dry to spread the defense and the ball around the field—and it’s showing in both passing effectiveness, and pass protection grades.

Throughout all three seasons, the Lions haven’t been more than a half a standard deviation off the mean. They were just below league average in 2009, just above it in 2010, and are just below it as we speak. This is the most pessimistic assessment of the Lions pass blocking I could find.

Football Outsiders ranks the Lions' pass protection as third-best in the NFL, with an Adjusted Sack Rate of 2.9%. The New York Life Protection Index currently ranks the Lions’ O-line 7th-best at keeping the quarterback clean. In both cases, they’d likely be topping the charts if it weren’t for the Minnesota game . . . which, given my suspicions about the Vikings’ eternally-rowdy home atmosphere, that really grinds my gears.

Jeff Backus is not Walter Jones. We know this. To our untrained eyes, the pass protection seems “lousy,” and the data suggests that our untrained eyes are absolutely right. But if our “lousy” is just about as good as everyone else’s “lousy,” then it’s not really all that lousy. And, if our “lousy” is really much better than everyone else’s “lousy,” as FO and the NYLPI imply, then we’d better learn to appreciate what we’ve got.


Watchtower Review: Lions at Cowboys

>> 10.04.2011

Last week I correctly predicted a lot of things about the NFL. I correctly picked the winner of 14 of last week’s 16 NFL games, including the exact score of the SF - Philly game. In the Watchtower, I also correctly predicted the winner . . . but that’s about all I got right.

The Cowboys have no systemic advantage over the Lions, so I project them to meet expectations, scoring 17-20 points. If last year’s pattern holds, they will throw for 6.75-7.50 YpA, well below season averages, and run for 3.75-4.0 YpC, well above season averages. I have medium confidence in this projection.

Of course, the Cowboys scored 30 points. Here’s where it gets interesting, though: They threw for 7.04 YpA and ran for 4.19 YpC—almost exactly in line with my expectations. The Cowboys moved the ball against the Lions defense just as well as I thought, but scored way more points. Why?

Willie Young got one sack on the last drive--that's it. The Lions committed 4 defensive penalties, 3 by Corey Williams and 1 by Ndamukong Suh. One gave the Cowboys a free first down on 2nd-and-five, and the Dez Bryant TD came three downs later. One made a 3rd-and-10 into a 3rd-and-5, which was converted—ultimately leading to a Cowboys field goal. The third and fourth were on the Cowboys’ final scoring drive, allowing the field goal that made it 30-17. That last one was Suh’s disputed roughing-the-passer penalty on a failed 3rd-and-3 that would have stopped that drive.

As I’ve said before, the Lions are built to jump to an early lead, then turn up the defensive heat as teams play catch-up against tem. The offense hung the defense out to dry time after time after time—and only because the back seven took the game into their own hands was the victory delivered.

The Lions shouldn’t be winning games because the defense is dragging the offense back into the game kicking and screaming; the offense should be dominating from the jump. This has to get better.

We’re left to conclude that Scott Linehan’s balanced offense has a systemic passing advantage against Rob Ryan’s hyperaggressive 3-4 defense. Linehan’s offenses pass much better than expectations, and score much better than expectations, when facing a Rob Ryan defense. Therefore, I project the Lions offense to outpeform expectations, especially through the air, scoring 33-35 points. I have medium-to-high confidence in this projection.

Whoops. The Lions’ offense scored just 20 points. I apparently forgot to project per-play running and passing effectiveness, but believe me when I say 5.58 YpA is way below expectations. The Lions had been averaging 8.45 YpA coming into the game, and I was projecting a systemic pass advantage. The Cowboys had been allowing 6.48 YpA coming into the game, which is a little on the stingy, but the Lions’ passing attack should have been much more effective than it was, even without an advantage.

The run game bounced back after last week’s awful performance, averaging a tepid-but-acceptable 3.71 YpC. The Cowboys had been excellent against the run, allowing just 2.97 YpC, so that’s actually an excellent performance. Between the offensive line holding the #1 pass rush in the NFL to no sacks, and the running game producing as-usual against a stout run D, the offensive line really redeemed themselves against Dallas.

I believe this game is critical to the outcome of the Lions’ season. The Lions will be a very tough out at home, but have a vicious last three games of their schedule. To get a road win on this big of a stage would be huge, and it makes me gunshy that the data leads my proverbial horse to water. Yet, what have I to do but drink? The most likely outcome of the game is a 34-20 Lions win.

Got the score wrong, but got the conclusion right: no matter how you slice it, this Lions win has enormous implications for the rest of the season.


Three Cups Deep: Lions at Cowboys

>> 10.03.2011


Let me fill my third cup of coffee . . . ahh. Smell that? It’s Detroit Lion Supremo Victory Blend. The heat is radiating right through the thin ceramic. I hold it not by the handle, but with both hands wrapped around the outside. I bring it to my lips and bow my head. With the quiet reverence of prayer, I take a long, slow, deep sip.

The steam fills my nose as the hot liquid drains down my throat, warming my empty belly. After an exhilarating, exhausting day of excitement, anticipation, shock, dread, hope, and jubilation, I need all the rejuvenating strength of this coffee, of this Lions win, to get me going again.

The Lions are 4-0, on an NFL-best eight-game win streak, a franchise-best five-game road win streak, and are tied with the Packers atop the NFC North—and the NFL entire.

I’m elated by the tenacity the Lions have displayed in coming back from 20+ points down in consecutive games—the first time that’s ever been done, according to Elias Sports Bureau. I’m thrilled that they’ve managed to eke out wins on the road when they aren’t playing well. I’m dazzled by the performance of the Lions’ defense—who, truth be told, has been bailing out Stafford and the high-flying receiver corps all season.

I’m stoked that the Lions are 4-0 with next week’s Monday Night Football kicking off a long stretch of home games and winnable road games. Pulling out a victory in Jerryworld set the Lions up very, very, very well for the postseason.

On the Fireside Chat last night I told you to “savor this moment in time,” to drink in the national praise and hold the sweet taste of 4-0 on your tongue for as long as you can. I believe greater things are in store for the Lions this year, but this is a wonderfully special, wholly unique time to be a Lions fan. It can get better, but not much.

As in coffee, there’s bitterness in this cup of Lions victory. The Lions have not yet played a full sixty minutes of their best football. I’m the first to say this is the Great Lie of football fandom: that “Fans of That Other Team never have to deal with this!” No matter how good the team, how perennially successful the franchise, fans are always left with something to gripe about. However, the Lions can not keep spotting opponents the first half of football; it will catch up with them sooner rather than later. As Commenter Matt said, “While the Lions have ‘finishing’ down cold, now they have to learn how to ‘start’.”

This is where the TV camera angle leaves us cold: we couldn’t see where the breakdown in the Lions’ passing offense was. Were the Cowboys back seven just that good in coverage? Were the Lions receivers just failing to get open? Was Scott Linehan schooled by Rex Ryan in the gameplan department? Was Matthew Stafford just a beat slow on getting rid of the ball? Without the coaching-film “All 22” angle, it’s difficult to tell.

The upshot is, Stafford got the ball where it needed to go when it needed to go there most, and the defense made plays when it needed to make plays the most. People will tell you “the Lions didn’t come back, Tony Romo brought the Lions back” but that's nonsense.

Look at Chris Houston’s pick-six: he outfought Laurent Robinson for the well-thrown pass, intercepted it one-handed, put on a beautiful spin move and—despite the entire Cowboys team having the angle on him, he raced past them all to the end zone. Go set your Juggs machine on "Tony Romo" and try to catch its passes one-handed while somebody a few inches taller than you pushes you in the chest. You'll be there all day.

Yes, the defense bailed the Lions’ offense out—but they’ll return to Ford Field next Monday, where they have yet to play anything less than dominant, lights-out football this pre- and regular season. They’ll welcome the 2-2 Bears into their den, where us Lions fans will be rocking, rolling, and ready to help lift the Lions to 5-0.


Fireside Chat Week 4: Lions at Cowboys

It’s incredible. It's inexplicable. It’s ridiculous. It’s ANOTHER LIONS WIN.

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