The Watchtower: Lions at Buccaneers

>> 9.07.2011

Pirates of the Carribean Clock Tower

Ahh, the long-awaited Watchtower. For those of you unfamiliar, the Watchtower is my weekly preview of the Lions’ matchup against their opponent. I analyze the prior matchups between the Lions’ coordinators and their opponents’; I look for statistical trends that could reveal a systemic advantage for one side or another. To review prior works, just search for the label “the watchtower.”

Late in the 2010 season, the 4-10 Lions traveled to the 8-6 Bucs. The Lions, of course, dragged a three-year, 26-game road losing streak down to Florida with them. Due to some overambitious scheduling, I couldn’t complete a full Watchtower before that game. I did do some quick analysis, though, and projected a 17-20 Lions loss:

I know the Lions are circling this date as the date the snap the road losing streak--but that losing streak is a mighty dragon, and I don't have enough data to say the Lions will slay it.

Of course, that final score was awfully close; the teams were knotted at 20 after four quarters, and the Lions needed Dave Rayner to convert his third field goal of the day to win it in overtime. How did the Lions outperform offensive expectations that day? Well, let’s not get ahead of ourselves.

Greg Olson vs. Gunther Cunningham

  Olson Ornk PgG YpA YpC Gun Drnk PpG DYpA DYpC PTS PTSΔ YpA YpAΔ YpC YpCΔ
2010 TBB 20th 21.3 6.80 4.64 DET 19th 23.1 6.75 4.51 20 -6% 7.64 +12% 6.29 +36%

Greg Olson’s name sounds familiar to most Lions fans.

19 October 2008: Chicago Bears tight end Greg Olsen (82) celebrates a Bears touchdown.  The Bears defeated the Vikings by a score of 48 to 41 at Soldier Field, Chicago, Illinois.

No, not Greg Olsen, Greg Olson.

greg_olson_detroit_lions

Yeah, Greg Olson—Detroit Lions quarterbacks coach in 2004 and 2005, and offensive coordinator from when Steve Mariucci got the ziggy to the conclusion of the 2005 season.

Olson’s coaching pedigree is all over the map, and his Lions connections are dizzying. He was OC and QB coach at his alma mater, Central Washington, from 1990-1993. If the name of that NAIA school rings a bell, it’s because Olson oversaw the development of legendary CWU quarterback Jon Kitna.

Olson moved up to take over Idaho’s offensive coordinator gig, left vacant by the departure of Scott Linehan. Olson’s next job was QB coach at Purdue under spread guru Joe Tiller, and from 1997-2000 Olson’s star pupil was one Drew Brees. In 2001, the San Francisco 49ers’ Steve Mariucci hired Olson to coach the quarterbacks; Olson guided Jeff Garcia to his second consecutive Pro Bowl.

After returning to Purdue for one season as recruiting coordinator and tight ends coach, Olson returned to the NFL, again as QB coach, this time for Chicago. When Steve Mariucci was hired in Detroit, he hired Olson to be his quarterbacks coach. Olson actually took over playcalling duties for the Lions for the last three games of the ‘04 season, theoretically to free up Mooch so he could focus on overall coaching.

When Mooch’s overall coaching did not go so well, and the Lions tabbed Gary Moeller Dick Jauron [Ed.- this is why you don't blog the midnight oil] as the interim head man, Olson took over the offensive coordinator duties, as well. Unfortunately, Jauron, Olson, and the rest of the Lions’ staff were broomed to make way for Rod Marinelli and Mike Martz.

Olson found a home in St. Louis, working as offensive coordinator underneath . . . wait for it . . . Rams head coach Scott Linehan. Olson then jumped to Tampa Bay, where he served as quarterbacks coach under OC Bill Muir and head coach Jon Gruden. When Raheem Morris took over, he hired former Boston College head coach Jeff Jagodzinksi—then fired him on the eve of the Bucs’ first preseason game. Olson was then elevated to offensive coordinator.

So. Olson has run the Dennis Erickson spread, the Mariucci WCO, the Joe Tiller spread, the Scott Linehan Dennis Erickson With Double Meat, and the Jon Gruden WCO. He’s coached Jon Kitna, Jeff Garcia twice, and Joey Harrington. Unfortunately, what he hasn’t done with any frequency is coach against Gunther Cunningham.

The Lions didn't play the Chiefs in 2004 or 2005, and when Olson was working with Linehan, Gunther was running Herman Edwards’ Tampa 2, not his usual system. The Lions didn’t play the Bucs in 2009 either, so the most recent clash is all we have to go on.

Last year, the Bucs’ offense was the 20th-most potent in the NFL, racking up 21.3 points per game. They passed for a respectable 6.80 yards per attempt, and ran for a very solid 4.64 YpC. Meanwhile, the Lions had the 19th-best scoring defense in the NFL, allowing 23.1 PpG, 6.75 YpA, and 4.51 YpC. My expectation would have been for the Bucs to score a little more than usual, while running and passing just as effectively as they typically did.

Instead, the opposite occurred.

The Lions held the Bucs to 20 points; down 6% from their season average. Yet, the Bucs were 12% more effective passing, and a whopping 36% more effective on the ground. This was mostly due to the walloping efforts of LeGarette Blount, who racked up 110 yards on just 15 carries. His 7.33 YpC average on the day was much greater than his season average of 5.0. Tampa Bay protected the ball well, too: no fumbles or picks. So why didn’t the Bucs score more?

Well, the three sacks for 25 yards made an impact; one was on 3rd-and-5, one was on 2nd-and-14, and the last was on 1st-and-10 but was for –14 yards. Two of the three stopped drives. Tampa’s 3rd-down percentage was just 41%, compared to 50% for the Lions. Finally, The Bucs were also penalized nine times for –65 yards.

Unfortunately, I can’t identify a systemic advantage from one data point. Disproportionately disrupting scoring by stopping drives with sacks is the design goal of the defense. I’m kind of stunned it worked with Blount being so devastating; I expect the Bucs to give Blount more than 15 carries this Sunday. We have no current performance data to go on, so I’ll have to recycle last year’s. I project the Bucs’s offense will meet expectations, scoring 20-23 points. I have extremely low confidence in this projection.

Mitigating/Aggravating Factors:

The Bucs as a team, the Bucs’ offense in particular, and Josh Freeman in even more particular, are on the rise. Greg Olson’s resumé is stunning (I expect him to be a hot head coaching candidate soon), and Tampa Bay’s offense could be much more potent this year than last. Of course, the same could be said for the Lions’ defense; they’ve dramatically upgraded the back seven, especially against the run. I was stunned at the complete lack of turnovers for both sides; any turnovers in this game could have a big effect on the bottom line.

Scott Linehan vs. Raheem Morris

  Lin Ornk PgG YpA YpC Morris Drnk PpG DYpA DYpC PTS PTSΔ YpA YpAΔ YpC YpCΔ
2010 DET 15th 22.6 6.02 3.99 TBB 9th 19.9 6.17 4.75 23 +2% 6.63 +10% 6.46 +62%

Raheem Morris’ path to NFL head coaching is short and sweet. He attended Hofstra University, coached there as a grad assistant, got a job, got hired away by Cornell, got hired back. The Bucs hired him as a quality control assistant, then two promotions, then he went to Kansas State to coordinate their defense for one season, then back to the Bucs as DB coach, then promoted to defensive coordinator after the season, then promoted to head coach a month later when Jon Gruden was fired.

Morris turned 35 a week ago. I turn 30 this weekend. This does not compute.

As a Monte Kiffin disciple, first once then twice removed, Morris runs a more aggressive flavor of the Tampa 2: the “Tampa 2.1.” It’s still smaller D-linemen in one-gap schemes, backed with lots of zone coverage by the linebackers and safeties. But there’s a lot more blitzing, and more press coverage by the cornerbacks.

Last season, the Bucs’ defense tightened up tremendously from 2009: they allowed 19.9 PpG,  a whopping 5.9-point improvement. They went from being the 27th-best offense to the 9th-best, allowing just 6.17 YpA. The run defense was less impressive; offenses averaged 4.75 YpC.

The Lions’ offense finished as the 15th-best unit in the NFL last season, averaging 22.6 points per game. The passing offense was underwhelming, averaging just 6.02 YpA. The running game was an eyelash short of 4.0 YpC, the stoutest season-long team rushing performance from the Lions in quite some time.

In last year’s contest, the Lions scored 23 points, right on target with their season average—considering this was against a top ten scoring defense, that sounds like impressive outperformance of expectations . . . but they needed overtime to do it, and the Bucs were without DT Gerald McCoy. We’ll say they met expectations. However, they netted 6.63 YpA, a modest-but-noteworthy 10% boost above their season average. They also gained a monster 6.46 YpC, a walloping 62% increase. How’d they do it?

Well, Maurice Morris matched LeGarrette Blount’s astonishing 7.33 YpC performance with 7.27 YpC of his own: given the same 15 carry workload, he toted it 109 yards. For those of you trying to figure out whether Jerome Harrison or Keiland Williams will be the backup and change-of-pace back, you may want to re-watch this game.

The story is basically the same in reverse: the Lions more-or-less met expectations last time. Without any established trends for this year, I can only project the Lions’ offense to meet expectations, scoring 21-24 points. I have extremely low confidence in this projection.

Mitigating/Aggravating Factors:

Well, the Lions will have a healthy Matthew Stafford and Jahvid Best this time around; when they had both healthy year they were a much more potent offense. That having been said, this Bucs team went 10-6 last year and figure to be better this year; beating an opponent like that on the road will be no easy task.

Conclusion:

I really wish I had more than one data point to go on. This is a fantastic Week 1 matchup; a really intriguing set of talented units with experienced and clever coaches. Strength of projection aside, I wish these coordinators had had more chess matches against each other! Again, while highlighting the extreme paucity of data, I’m going to swallow hard, wipe the sweat from my forehead, tug at my collar and project the most likely outcome to be another narrow Lions victory: 24-21, albeit in regulation this time.

13 comments:

Derek September 8, 2011 at 2:34 AM  

Ty,
Gary Moeller was not named interim head coach after Mooch was canned in 2005, it was Dick Jauron.

Deryl September 8, 2011 at 6:26 AM  

Derek beat me to it. I will add that Moeller was named HC after Ross quit mid-season. I choose to forget what happened between then and last year.

Anonymous,  September 8, 2011 at 8:15 AM  

Lions by 14.

Anonymous,  September 8, 2011 at 10:20 AM  

Last year I thought that the lions were an 8-8 team, but due to injuries and bad calls from refs, they underachieved. This year they have made SIGNIFICANT UPGRADES to their back 7 on defense and to their WR depth, and although most teams have probably improved some, I think the Lions have improved the most this year, except maybe for Philadelphia and New England. Consequently, I think the Lions should be a 14-2 team this year with the obvious disclamers (i.e. Stafford and other key playmakers are not injured).

Based on this premise, I'd say the Lions beat Tampa by 10.

Anonymous,  September 8, 2011 at 10:39 AM  

I should also mention that this is the season the lions will make some noise, and hopefully, a deep playoff run. I see them losing some key players due to free agency and their win-loss record slipping next season.

NorthLeft12 September 8, 2011 at 10:44 AM  

I also don't believe this game will be as close as some make out. Both teams have upgraded over the offseason, but the key difference in this game [as for the whole season] will be the play of Matthew Stafford.

I don't want to sound overconfident, but I think the Lions will win by at least 17 points.

Jim September 8, 2011 at 1:14 PM  

The Watchtower Returns! I saw someone post yesterday that the Bucs OL wasn't worried about our defensive line even a little. While I don't expect them to be pissing their boots at the sight of Suh, that was surprising to me.

Dream Katari September 8, 2011 at 1:38 PM  

Ive got to be one of the few that is expecting a 8-8 season.

This game to me is very telling, the Bucs feel just like the Lions to me.

This game could be a very good meter for how our season could go. Ive got my eye on how Stafford plays and that run game of ours.

Im on the fence. Im not coming off it until I get some proof.

Ill never stop rooting for the Lions but I just need to see it. Preseason QB looks good, now its for real.

LionsFanROC,  September 9, 2011 at 11:54 AM  

This might not mean anything to anyone except me, but if you look at the Bucs schedule from last season, they didn't beat a single team above .500 until week 17 when they played the Saints, who had already clinched a wild card spot. Some might argue that the Saints had something to play for because if they won and the Falcons lost, they had a shot at winning the division. The Falcons, however, we're playing the Panthers and thus the Saints really never had a shot at making up that ground.

Who did they beat? Carolina (2), Cleveland (prior to Colt starting), Cincy, St. Louis, Arizona, San Fran, Seattle and Washington. How many of these teams had winning records? Zero.

Anytime they played a good team, they lost and a few times, got trounced. Pitt by 25, a serious NO by 25, ATL by 6, Ravens by 7, ATL by 4 and DET by 3.

I realize the Bucs didn't have some players, but we didn't have Stafford. Who upgrades your team more, a talented 2nd year DT and a very good up and coming CB, or a potential star QB? And that's before we mention that the Bucs did almost nothing to improve this offseason outside of drafting talent, while the Lions picked up a star MLB and a starting quality OLB as well as a legitimate 3rd WR and potentially very good CB.

Gotta give it to the Lions, at least on paper. We'll see come Sunday.

Alvin2112,  September 9, 2011 at 3:00 PM  

Happy 3.0 this weekend Ty, hopefully the Lions give you a win for your B'day. After reading your rundown I'm not sure what to expect this weekend other then expect the unexpected,lol.

Al

rames September 9, 2011 at 11:41 PM  

Thanks for these Ty! I always look forward to The Watchtower. Part of the routine to get myself ready...lol

Post a Comment


  © Blogger template Simple n' Sweet by Ourblogtemplates.com 2009

Find us on Google+

Back to TOP