Old Mother Hubbard: The Wide Receivers

>> 5.10.2011

Finishing up the Old Mother Hubbard series, post-draft, seems anti-climatic. However, there’s plenty of offseason left (maybe too much), and this cupboard isn’t done being restocked. To that end, we dig into the Pro Football Focus grades for wide receivers:

image

In this case, “Pass” refers to their grades in the passing game, i.e. their receiving performance. “Run” refers to their performance when running the football (on reverses, etc.). Unlike tight ends, run blocking and pass blocking are consolidated into “Blocking,” as receivers rarely pass block. The bright orange line represents Brandon Lloyd, the wideout who turned in the best overall grade. His +24 is predicated almost entirely on his +23.4 receiving grade (the other dimensions have little variation, and therefore little impact on the overall grade). Should we be surprised that Darrius Heyward-Bey is bringing up the rear? His –14 overall grade is the worst of any NFL wideout.

There’s a little thing in research called “confirmation bias,” where you seek out objective facts that confirm your preconceptions. That the Lions drafted a speedy receiver with their second pick suggests the Lions saw a need that had to be filled. I simply have to acknowledge this: I’m curious to see why the Lions thought they should pick a wideout so high, especially one whose game superficially matches Nate Burleson’s. I’m going to do this straight, but keep an eye out for signals that there’s a need to stretch the field.

The Lions’ WR corps is the most divergent unit on the team. Most of the other positions’ players are clustered around the thick black AVERAGE line, with only a few strong deviations in either direction. However, Calvin Johnson was PFF’s third-best graded receiver in 2010, with a very strong +14 overall grade. That was powered by a +14.5 receiving grade, and only having a single penalty called against him all year. He also had a (very) slightly above-average rushing grade.

Surprisingly, Megatron’s blocking grade was awful. He turned in a –3.1 blocking mark, well below the NFL average of –1.27, and ranked 94th out of 110 receivers. We don’t play Megatron to block, but you’d think a dude who has half a foot and sixty pounds on most corners could do better than that without breaking a sweat.

Statistically, Calvin caught 77 of 131 passes thrown at him; his percentage of passes caught is actually a little below-average at 58.8% (NFL average: 59.6%). Part of this is definitely due to system and quarterbacking. The top receiving percentage guys are typically slot receivers in pass-first, multi-WR offenses featuring quality quarterbacks; Megatron is a #1 wideout in a conventional offense driven by very inconsistent quarterback play last year. Still, I’d expected Calvin to be better than the mean at getting to, and hauling in, footballs.

Perhaps it's in the way they use him? Megatron was thrown at once every 7.8 snaps, exactly the NFL average. His yards per reception, 14.5, is definitely a notch above average, 13.2. But his touchdowns . . . well, his 13 12 vastly outstrip the league average of 4. It was my eyeball observation that the Lions tended to move between the 30s with passes to slot WRs, TEs, and RBs, then take shots at the endzone with Calvin once they got close. I divided receptions by touchdowns and . . . yup! Megatron was 10th in the NFL with 6.4 receptions per touchdown (4th with 5.9 if you count the Chicago Robbery). If the Lions were throwing to Calvin, they were often taking a shot at the end zone.

Bottom Line: Calvin Johnson was one of the NFL’s best receivers in 2010, despite being targeted the average number of times, primarily in the red zone, by a rotating cast of quarterbacks. If he and Matthew Stafford play all 16 games in 2011, expect Megatron to be #1 by a long shot.

The neon-green line a little ways inside of AVERAGE is Nate Burleson, the Lions’ second-splashiest free agent acquisition of 2010. Burleson turned in a –2.7 receiving grade, which couldn’t be offset by his run grade (+1.6, tied with Devin Hester for third-best in the NFL), or his relatively clean penalty grade. His very-slightly-below-average blocking performance (-1.4) didn’t help either.

Burleson’s negative grade didn’t come entirely from dropped passes, as Brandon Pettigrew’s clearly did. Burleson was ranked 56th in snaps-per-drop, with 17.0 (avg.: 17.6)—not great, but barely off the NFL median and mean. His YAC was excellent; 18th-best in the NFL with 5.6. He also made a defender miss on a post-catch tackle 8 times on just 55 receptions—the 21st-highest rate in the NFL (6.9 Rec./MT; NFL avg. 10.8).

That is the end of the good news for Burleson—who, outside of two great games against the Jets and Dolphins (+2.9, +3.4), turned in neutral or weakly negative grades the rest of the year (none worse than his –1.8 week one; most not nearly that low). He also, despite his well-above-average YAC rate, could only muster 11.4 yards per reception. Think about that: he ran for an average of 5.6 yards after every catch, but only gained 11.4 yards on an average catch. He caught the ball an average of 5.8 yards downfield! The picture this all paints is of a slightly-below-average receiver who struggles to get open deep—but becomes a genuine threat once the ball is in his hands.

Bottom Line: Nate Burleson proved to be a valuable asset, often getting open short and manufacturing yards in space when there were none to be had. However, he failed to provide a credible threat across from Calvin Johnson, instead carving out a niche in underneath the coverage. “Recepticon” has a future in this offense, but it will be much brighter if he can work in the space created by a legitimate deep threat.

Bryant Johnson is a receiver from Penn State who seems like a really cool guy on Twitter. Unfortunately, PFF’s grades are not kind to him. Johnson’s –13.1 overall grade is second-worst in the NFL, ahead of only Darrius Heyward-Bey. His –13.5 receiving grade is at the very bottom; it’s only his total lack of penalties called that pull him up above Heyward-Bey. His 37.5% of targets caught is also second-worst in the league; dropping 7 passes on just 48 targets didn’t help.

Here’s one positive tidbit for Johnson, though: his 4.2 catches per missed tackle means he was the third-hardest WR to bring down in the NFL. Should he happen to catch the ball, Bryant Johnson is tough to stop.

Bottom Line: Bryant Johnson struggled mightily to catch the ball in 2010, as he did in 2009. Though his body type and tool set would be the perfect complement to draw coverage away from Megatron and open up space for Burleson, his inability to catch the ball strips him of any credible threat—and of any real chance of returning for 2010.

Derrick Williams is a receiver from Penn State who seems like a really cool guy on Twitter. Williams's commitment to giving back to the Detroit community is as impressive as it is unheralded. Unfortunately, PFF’s graders took a dim view of his 2010 performance, as well. Williams, whose 154 snaps didn’t qualify him for the 25% cutoff, only saw time in weeks 3, 4, 5, 11, 12, and 13.

His –6 overall rating and –4.8 receiving rating didn’t come from doing a bad job catching the ball. The problem was, he was never open: in 154 snaps played, Lions quarterbacks only targeted him three times. Astonishingly, that’s the exact same number of penalty flags he drew (though one was called back).

Bottom Line: Despite being, by all appearances, a great guy and a good teammate, Williams’ single reception for 7 yards was probably the former #1 recruit in America’s last as a Lion.

SHOPPING LIST: Though no one identified WR as a need prior to the draft, had I managed to crank this one out I’d have been screaming from the mountaintops about this one, too. Calvin Johnson is a flat-out stud, Nate Burleson is a quality slot ninja, and after that the Lions have two guys who’ve proven they can’t help, and practice squadders like Brian Clark and Tim Toone. The need for a wideout with legitimate downfield speed and NFL hands to go with it was, in fact, desperate—and the Lions may have filled it with Titus Young.


112 comments:

BenderCU May 10, 2011 at 3:25 PM  

I agree with the break down in every way except when it comes to talking about targets. I don't like putting the blame totally on WRs when it comes to missed targets. Targets r a very misleading stat because the ball just has to be in the WR's general direction, that doesn't mean it was even remotely catchable.

Anonymous,  May 10, 2011 at 3:55 PM  

Ty, what about the RBs and QBs or is there not enough data for those positions?

Ty May 10, 2011 at 3:58 PM  

BenderCU--

Thanks; I tried to control for that by looking at the charted dropped passes total--which is NOT just "targets minus catches," it's only straight drops. Also, I tried to note that Calvin was the recipient of a lot of "shots at the end zone," low-percentage jumpballs designed to score from a distance. That undoubtedly brought down Megatron's numbers.

Peace
TY

Ty May 10, 2011 at 4:01 PM  

Anon--

RBs are coming up . . . QBs could be tricky. For reasons I don't fully understand, PFF doesn't normalize their QB data. Therefore, the grades and charting won't really be consistent with the other positions. Besides, I think we can all agree that the Lions are completely, totally set at the quarterback position.

I may do a shortened OMH for the quarterbacks, just for grins.

Peace
Ty

Anonymous,  May 10, 2011 at 4:10 PM  

I just miss-read your initial sentence on this post regarding "finishing OMH up" post. Thanks Ty

Ty May 10, 2011 at 4:11 PM  

Anon--

No problem!

Peace
Ty

telemakhos,  May 10, 2011 at 4:34 PM  

Which of the lions' unimpressive wide receivers is the cool guy from penn state? you have it written twice.

As for an actual comment on the article, I hope titus has the legitimate speed to be a deep threat. Really, it's the only thing that concerns me about him. He's quick and has great acceleration and a knack for getting deep. Let's just hope that he has enough speed to run away from the coverage.

Ty May 10, 2011 at 4:43 PM  

telemakhos--

Both Bryant Johnson and Derrick Williams are from Penn State, and both have impressed me--for different reasons--on Twitter.

I agree completely about Young; I haven't seen enough yet to say whether I think he has that top gear or not. Look at my Meet the Cubs for Derrick Williams:

http://www.thelionsinwinter.com/2009/05/meet-cubs-derrick-williams.html

"Issue #1 is his speed. Tremendously fast for a high school player, it appears as though Williams got no faster in six years. It's possible that the Nike camp time was somewhat inflated (er, deflated?), but from the summer before your junior year of high school and the spring after your senior year of college, you typically grow, strengthen, and mature physically. To show zero improvement whatsoever is a little odd. *By the way, to clear up some confusion, Williams cut a horrid 4.58 at the combine, then (rather lamely, I thought at the time) blamed it on a case of the flu. However, he proved me--and the doubters--wrong by cutting a 4.37 and 4.41 at PSU's Pro Day. Moreover, the straight-line track speed doesn't necessarily translate to pad-laden in-game speed. For proof, I offer the one YouTube highlight reel:"

"Skip to the 0:58 mark and watch carefully. As the play progresses, note his progress as compared to the other white helmets. After he hits the first pile, you'll note that he doesn't gain much ground on the players around him, even after he's broken into the open field. Once the way is clear, he should hit another gear and streak to the house--but instead, he flies in formation with the tight ends and linebackers assigned to block for him. Now of course, this doesn't mean that he's not faster than those guys, it just means that his shorts-and-t-shirt speed doesn't always translate to the field. It should go without saying that the overall speed of the NFL blows away the college game . . . can he even be effective as a returner without that top gear?"

As I look at tape of Young, I'm going to be watching carefully for that explosive speed. It might be harder to pick out, given the different level of competition.

Peace
Ty

NorthLeft12 May 10, 2011 at 6:01 PM  

Ty, I have to take issue with your comment about no one identifying WR as a need. I [and a few others] took a fair bit of heat for suggesting that Julio Jones would be the BPA that fills a need if he fell to us at # 13 which a lot of early drafts had him going to # 14 [to the Rams and Bradford. Funny how those things work out, eh?]. The PSU brothers had as many snaps as Burleson [over 800] over the 2010 season. If we had not upgraded our WR corps this off season, think where we would be if Burleson or [shudder!] Calvin was injured for any length of time. To me, this was a bigger hole than OLB or the secondary. Especially considering the poor quality and high cost of the WR FAs that may be available.
Titus is a bargain at twice what his contract will likely be.
Plenty would disagree with me!

the3rdHeat,  May 10, 2011 at 9:48 PM  

Ty

I love the OMH series. I freaking love it.

I definitely didn't expect you to say you didn't think WR was a need but I'm glad your data just reinforces the fact that Mayhew and Schwartz are on the right path.

I'm wondering if they will keep either DW or BJ around. I would have to imagine they would want to keep at least one to have a back up that is familiar with the offense. I saw BJ make a few really great catches, but I don't think they'll keep him around for what he is supposed to make.

I was considering the fact that they may need to find a legit #4 WR (someone who can at least catch the ball), but Scheffler, Best or even LeShoure could line up as that 4th receiver if they go 4 wide... or do you think Toone or Clark have a shot of making the final roster this year?

James,  May 11, 2011 at 10:16 AM  

Great post Ty. Going into the draft I didn't see receiver as a huge need, but after the Titus Young pick and reading a bunch of analysis I see that it clearly is. I reccomend reading this post by ESPN's Kevin Seifert if you haven't already.

http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/40351/titus-young-a-smart-fit-for-lions

Ty May 11, 2011 at 3:07 PM  

NorthLeft12-

"Ty, I have to take issue with your comment about no one identifying WR as a need. I [and a few others] took a fair bit of heat for suggesting that Julio Jones would be the BPA that fills a need if he fell to us at # 13 which a lot of early drafts had him going to # 14 [to the Rams and Bradford. Funny how those things work out, eh?]."

First, I'm sorry for either not seeing, or forgetting, that you said that! Then again, knowing how things have played out, would you have been more surprised by "the Detroit Lions select Julio Jones" than you were by "the Detroit Lions select Nick Fairley"?

Second, I DID see WR as a need, but I presumed the Lions would be looking at a developmental guy in the 4th-to-6th round, not an immediate contributor at the top of the second.

Peace
Ty

Ty May 11, 2011 at 5:16 PM  

the3rdHeat--

You're welcome! The OMH stuff is really just me digging for my own sake, and showing my work . . . I just try to write what I want to read, you know?

If they keep either of the Penn Staters, it'll probably be Derrick Williams just on youth alone. The quarterbacks don't seem to trust either of them at the moment, but you know what you have in Johnson--there's at least a chance the light goes on for Williams and he becomes useful as a second slot guy.

Peace
Ty

Jimmerz,  May 11, 2011 at 7:21 PM  

I also enjoy the OMH segments. This one just proves what I've been saying all along - Calvin Johnson is overrated. I'm a little curious though how even if he and Stafford play all 16 games (which I would bet my house against happening) that you concluded "Megatron to be #1 by a long shot." Those numbers don't indicate that at all in my eyes. And lesser receivers have put up better numbers in worse QB situations in the past.

Either way, keep up the good work. Where can you see the numbers for all of the individual players on the Pro Football Focus site? I couldn't find it.

NorthLeft12 May 12, 2011 at 9:49 AM  

Ty, Funny about Fairley....I had a scenario where he would drop to Detroit and the Lions would trade the pick to Denver for their two seconds and a third. I never really considered that Nick, or any DT, would be of interest to the Lions. When he came in for a late visit should have been a clue to all of us that the Lions were interested and thought they may have a shot to get him.
It was not until after the pick was made and I heard the feedback from OTHER NFL teams' fans that I realized how well he fit in Detroit.

As far as the WR goes, I always thought the Lions wanted to draft a WR that they felt could have some instant impact. That meant drafting one relatively early. If you look at the FA WRs available they are poor fits for the Lions and will be very expensive. I think Titus' skill set and his relatively polished route running put him above guys like Torrey Smith, Edmund Gates, Randall Cobb, Leonard Hankerson, Greg Little, etc. in the Lions eyes. Titus will cost half as much as a mediocre WR FA, and will be twice the player IMO.
Yes I am very happy with this draft class. Very happy!

Alvin,  May 12, 2011 at 11:16 AM  

@NorthLeft12
I agree completely with your T. Young analysis and I'm really happy with the Lions draft, they did a great job filling needs IMO. Would I have loved a LB and a CB, yes, but the 3 guys we got at the top of the draft are all 1st rounders IMO and are going to put the offense and Dline on another level altogether.

@Ty

Keep up the great work bro, OMH is my favorite articles to read this time of the year.

Al

Matt,  May 12, 2011 at 1:22 PM  

Another great OMH, Ty. It may have helped identify WR as a need pre-draft, but I think most folks still would have put the needs list at CB, OLB, OT then maybe have DE/WR/RB as tie. The problem is with how most folks approach creating a pre-draft needs list. I think we mostly go "Ok, where do we need a starter? CB & OLB; those are the top needs. Now, where do we need a good solid back-up who could take over as starter in a couple years? OL & DE. Now, where do we just need depth? Well, Megatron, Burleson, and Best are all going to be starting for awhile still, so we only need back-ups there. Everywhere else we're mostly set." We then translate this directly to the rounds in which each position will be drafted - "We'll go CB in the 1st, OLB in the 2nd, address OL & DL in the middle rounds, then try to get a late steal at WR & RB." The Lions draft was surprising largely because fans and media people get stuck in this linear mindset and don't consider that the "4th need" might be addressed before the 2nd (maybe because it really was the 2nd) or that a "needless" pick will be made.

NorthLeft hits the nail right on the head - "If we had not upgraded our WR corps this off season, think where we would be if Burleson or [shudder!] Calvin was injured for any length of time. To me, this was a bigger hole than OLB or the secondary."

I wouldn't go as far as the second sentence - I think CB & OLB are bigger holes, but, to some extent, are easier to patch - but the first sentence is spot on. We had absolutely no one behind CJ & Nate and both have injury histories. I had high hopes for BJ, but anyone still carrying a torch for him is mistaken. I'm still willing to give Williams a chance, but you don't want him locked in as your #3 or filling in long-term for CJ or Nate. Logan is a versatile, dangerous, gimmicky weapon, but he'll never be a #3 WR. Fresh blood was definitely needed at this position and I agree with everyone who says it was smarter to address this need through the draft rather than free agency (though I won't be surprised if the Lions dip into the market for more warm bodies). I'm good with a 2011 depth chart of Megatron, Burleson, Titus, Williams, & Logan with an optional 6th and/or replacement for Williams. We'll have a guy or two on the practice squad as well.

As for Titus Young specifically, I'm anxiously awaiting Meet the Cubs. He falls into that category of "seems to be a good fit and have a good skill set, we'll see what happens." I have fewer concerns about his deep speed than I do about his all-around game and ability to hold up for 16 games (like Megatron & Burleson). The thing about deep speed is, whether you have it or not, if it's ALL you've got then you've really got nothing. In the NFL, a guy like this will be jammed at the line, then meet a safety down the field (see Heyward-Bey, Darrius). The defense can still double (or triple) Calvin and man-up Burleson with their #1 coverage guy. They'll still have to deal with our TEs and/or RBs, which I love, but you can cover the WRs if Young isn't a threat to do anything but go deep. Certainly he's being brought in to stretch the field, but in order to do that effectively, he has to be good at other things as well. As I said, we'll see what the kid can do. For the record, I think he'll succeed.

Matt,  May 12, 2011 at 1:23 PM  

Jimmerz, I don't understand how you can call the guy rated 3rd overall by PFF "overrated." I also don't think you can find another WR who has played in a worse QB situation than Calvin has had since he entered the league who has put up even close to the same numbers consistently. Sure, Lloyd was an amazing surprise last season and Kyle Orton is no Joe Montana, but the consistently top tier WRs (Reggie Wayne, Roddy White, Jennings/Driver, Marques Colston) have consistent top tier QBs. Some guys (Fitzgerald, Marshall, TO, Moss) have done well with inconsistent QB play (Anderson et al, Henne et al, Palmer/Losman et al, Cassel), but do their best work with their best QBs (Warner, Cutler, Young/Garcia/Romo, Brady). Meanwhile, Calvin has put up good-to-great numbers on some terrible teams catching passes from Stafford, Hill, Stanton, Kitna, Culpepper, Orlovsky, Henson, and O'Sullivan often times with the additional burdens of having no other legitimate pass-catching threat on the field and an ineffective ground game. Now that we can expect/hope he consistently lines up with Stafford, Best/Leshoure, Burleson/Young/Logan?, and Pettigrew/Scheffler - btw, I like the idea of Scheffler as an option in 4-wide formations - I think it's perfectly justifiable to predict another top tier season for Megatron. I'm cool with anyone saying they think he'll be the #1 overall WR in the NFL in 2011. . .

and then he'll get paid. . .

2011 will be the 5th season of his 6-year rookie contract. So at some point between when the "official league year" finally begins and, probably, before the 2012 season begins, we're going to be looking at contract talks. Continuing to play in what this offense could potentially be should be very enticing.

Ty May 13, 2011 at 2:39 PM  

Is commenting back up? I hope it is!

the3rdheat--

Thanks so much! I just try to write the stuff I want to read, you know? Glad it's hitting the spot for you.

I think if they keep either of the Penn Staters around, it'll be Williams--because of his youth, and because there's at least a possibility the light will go on for him this summer.

Peace
Ty

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