Of Potholes and Veterans: 2010 NFL Free Agency

>> 2.15.2010

Yesterday, my wife and elder daughter were at the Breslin, watching the MSU women’s hoops team take out Northwestern.  There were only two tickets available, so my son ended up being an unwilling non-participant.  Given his love of all things motorsport, I figured a quick jaunt out to a sports bar for a big-screen viewing of the Daytona 500 would lift his spirits.

Along with my way-too-close-to-two-years-old-for-my-comfort younger daughter, we got a table right next to a big projection screen—with the 500, in all its red-flagged-glory, on glorious display.  That’s right; I took my kids out to watch the Daytona 500 on the biggest possible screen, and we didn’t see a lap of actual racing.

The good folks at Daytona ended up just pouring a bunch of Bondo in the hole and runnin’ ‘em anyway; any car guy will call that poetic justice.  However, their old-school solution produced some serious problems: the finish was marred by wreck after wreck. Four-time champ Jimmie Johnson at least superficially blamed his late-race DNF on the gerry-rigged surface.

Upon closer inspection, it turns out the Daytona Beach superspeedway hadn’t been resurfaced since 1978; three years before this blogger was born.  It seems preposterous that I have conscious memories of Interstate freeways being built with public funds, while the crown jewel of American motorsport rolls on dated pavement—but there it is.

It’s hard not to draw parallels to the state of the Lions’ roster; the “345” pounds of Bondo filling the middle of the defensive line comes readily to mind.  It became obvious during the season that the aging veterans the Lions were relying upon to patch the roster weren’t doing the trick; the core of the roster has to be rebuilt.

The core of a successful NFL team is its young veterans: the 25-to-30-year-olds who have honed their craft through experience, but haven’t yet lost their youthful athleticism.  I present to you all the core of the Lions’ roster, in ascending age order:

Wow.  I knew this would be brutal, but it surpasses even my worst fears.  Of the 21 players that met my criteria, you could release all but four of them without any impact on the Lions’ 2009 performance*, or 2010 team potential: Megatron, Sims, Peterman, and Muhlbach.

The criteria were tough to define.  Brandon Pettigrew is 25, but just finished his rookie year—and Ernie Sims is only two months older, but has already played four seasons.  I set the lower bound at “at least 24 years old, with three or more completed seasons”, and the upper bound at “no more than 30 years old, or 7 completed seasons”.

If that seems like a narrow window, it is; time is short in the NFL.  We already speak of the “aging” Larry Foote and his “diminished skills”—yet, he’s only 29.  His eight years of service just barely disqualified him from this list.

Further, the 2009 draft class has been pushed into starting roles far more quickly than they would have on any other team.  It’s undeniable that Stafford, Pettigrew, Delmas, Levy, and Hill are starting-caliber talents, but to varying degrees they all could have benefitted from the time and space to develop before getting thrust out into the fray.  They’re the “core” of the team, but only because the actual core of the team lays in ruins.

What can be done?  Not much.  The answer should be to pursue these types of players in free agency, but this is an especially bad year to do so.  The vagaries of the CBA and the 2010 uncapped year mean that the four- and five-year veterans who’d be coming into the open market are now restricted free agents; if tendered at a decent level they’re nearly unsignable.

Here’s a reasonably complete list of six- and seven-year starter-caliber veterans who’ll be unrestricted free agents come March:

Wilfork and Franklin will be slapped with the franchise tag, taking them off the market.  Robinson will almost certainly be either tagged or re-signed to a monster deal, as the Texans have almost no one behind him at cornerback.  The 5’-11”, 235-pound Brackett doesn’t fit the Lions’ system at all, and the same goes for Tinoisamoa.

Burleson, Bryant, and Walter are legitimate options as #2 WRs, but it’s questionable whether Bryant or Walter represent a head-and-shoulders upgrade over Bryant Johnson.  Besides Burleson, Will Allen is another strong possibility.  A special-teams standout with experience at both free and strong safety, Allen missed most of last year with a broken thumb, and could be a nice complement to Louis Delmas.

Unfortunately, that’s about the extent of it: a handful of wideouts and a safety.  Any further attempts at rebuilding the young-veteran talent foundation of the Lions would involve either signing a restricted free agent, or making a trade—both which would almost certainly involve surrendering draft picks, with I don’t see Mayhew doing under almost any circumstance.

The more I look at the free agent market, the more I realize that, like Sunday’s Daytona 500, we’ll waiting a long time before the Lions’ roster is competitive again.  All we can hope for is that, like the 500, when they finally get there, it’s worth it.

* obviously, if they released Loper, Ramirez, and Gandy the Lions would have nobody to play left guard.  The idea here is that all of these guys are fungible; you can exchange a Dylan Gandy for a Rex Hadnot whenever you want, but a Jahri Evans is much tougher to come by.

9 comments:

Weston Corbitt February 16, 2010 at 2:28 PM  

Great stuff. This just goes and shows how important the draft is. We can't go all Dan Snyder in this rebuilding job.

Ty February 16, 2010 at 3:41 PM  

Thanks, man! Unfortunately, there are a lot of awesome players like Ray Edwards that SHOULD be coming free, but aren't. It's really frustrating.

Peace
Ty

Anonymous,  February 16, 2010 at 3:52 PM  

I think you forgot to mention Aaron Kampman and Kyle Vanden Bosch on this list... I think one of the two has a good chance of ending up here.

-Dave

Ty February 16, 2010 at 3:57 PM  

Dave--

Actually, both of those guys are too old to meet my criteria. In 2009, Kampman struggled in his transition to a 3-4 outside linebacker, and Vanden Bosch's production fell off the face of the Earth. Neither of those guys are going to be solid starters three or four years from now.

Peace
Ty

minker February 17, 2010 at 9:01 AM  

Sounds like trading down for more picks is having its case made here, but wouldn't that put us in a different strategy than last years' getting the top player at positions of need?(our first three picks were that way last year)
Staying pat gives us a limited number of picks while trading down drops us into shallower waters of the talent pool.
I know there's a lot more talent in the draft this year, so do we go for a couple of Blue chips or go with more players that have solid potential?

Anonymous,  February 17, 2010 at 10:46 AM  

One guy that may become a free agent that was off your list is Reggie Bush. I Still think that the Lions may have some interest in him if he makes it to the open market.
Lopper

OregonLion,  February 18, 2010 at 9:27 PM  

Nice research. I knew that the change in UFA eligibility was going to have a big impact, but it's astonishing to see how big that impact is. Or rather, how small the pool of attractive UFAs is.

And unfortunately, barring some other team falling irrationally in love with a player available at #2, we aren't likely to have enough draft picks to translate into five more solid starters this year. This is going to be a long process.

What am I saying - I've been a Lions fan since long before Ty was born. What's a couple more years?

Poop is Emergent Too February 19, 2010 at 12:43 PM  

Your son wanted to go to a girls basketball game? That is how I punish my son. :)

DLLionsFan February 20, 2010 at 9:58 PM  

I've started up a Lion's Website take a look and check it out!!!

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