the pills tell me I’m not crazy

>> 7.17.2009

Yesterday, FOXsports.com writer, and Sirius NFL radio host,  Adam Schein posted one of his “Schein’s Nine” pieces, similar to Peter King’s “Ten Things I Think I Think”.  The final item certainly turned my head: Packers cornerback Al Harris proclaiming that the Lions can win eight games this season.  Per Schein, Harris is enamored of the Lions’ new coaching staff—not only The Grandmaster, but new coordinators Cunningham and Linehan.  He likes the way the Lions have set up the quarterback position, the way they ran their draft, and the impact veterans brought in—especially the new linebackers, Julian Peterson and Larry Foote.

Predictably, Schein then distances himself as far as possible from this bold proclamation, saying the Lions have “no shot” at winning eight games.  What absolutely floors me about this, is that most of the NFL media spent all of last year marvelling at the incredible job that the Dolphins and Falcons did in turning their franchise around, and consequently spent all spring babbling about teams switching coaches and drafting players and signing free agents to follow their blueprint, and yammering on about which team will be “this year’s Dolphins” . . . and yet when presented with a smart, veteran football player with a deep passion not only for playing the game, but the business of the game, saying that a division rival could pull off an eight-win improvement, it’s laughable.  Ridiculous.  “No shot”.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not putting money on the Lions playing .500 ball this year—I predicted them to go 7-9, remember—but it goes to show what creatures of habit, routine, and expectation we are.  It can’t be impossible for an NFL club to rise from the very, very depths of the NFL to win double-digit games, without making a huge, splashy move—we’ve just seen TWO teams do it!  Neither the Fins nor Falcons dropped $100M on a megastar.  Neither the Fins nor Falcons hired The Hot Candidate to coach their team; I bet you most NFL fans still couldn’t bring Mike Smith’s name to their tongues.  Neither the Fins nor Falcons got a lot of attention for the important moves they did make; each added quality veterans like Chad Pennington and Michael Turner.

NFL fans and media spent all spring talking about following these two teams’ “blueprint” for success--but very few of those people seem to understand what that blueprint is, what was successful about it, and how teams are going about replicating it.  Of course, much time has been wasted scouring NFL depth charts, looking for wideouts and tailbacks who played quarterback at some post-Pop Warner  point in their careers, so they can be floated as possible candidates to “run the wildcat” . . . but the Wildcat isn't “the blueprint”, it's a PRODUCT of the blueprint.  The Dolphins thinking of, testing, tuning, and deploying the Wildcat formation in the NFL last season is the product of having good coaches at every level of the staff, a deep and talented roster, and a franchise-wide committment to quality and innovation.

Again, I am not floating the Lions as a potential playoff team.  I’m not saying that if you think the Lions will only win five games (Schein’s prediction), that you’re a moron.  All I’m saying is, in the NFL, on any given Sunday—and in any given season—anything can happen.  No team ever has “no shot” to win big (or lose big), especially when we’re still on this side of training camp.

71 comments:

Jimmerz,  July 17, 2009 at 5:11 PM  

I don't know man. I think it's laughable that anyone would take the opinion of a current NFL player with anything more than a grain of salt. And wasn't Al Harris the guy that Roy used to always say was the best corner in football? Sounds like Al was just throwing some love back the Lions way (only no one told Al Roy isn't on the team anymore).

For what it's worth though, I can't stand Adam Schein.

Ty July 17, 2009 at 10:25 PM  

You're absolutely right that active players are far from unimpeachable when it comes to evaluating other players and teams; many spend so much time working out, practicing, and watching film of themselves and their opponents, that they hardly have time to just, you know, watch football.

However, what really inspired me to go off like this was to Schein's reaction: "no shot". No shot? How, in the offseason immediately following two such dramatic--and unexpected--turnarounds, can you look at a team that's made such extensive changes and say there's no chance of such an improvement?

Peace
Ty

Anonymous,  July 20, 2009 at 1:11 PM  

Adam Schein (like most analysts it seems) is a moron. He may end up being right but everytime I hear the Lions come up in conversation whatever analyst I am watching at the time snickers and makes a crack. These were the same analysts that put the Lions into the playoffs last year. I would bet that if you asked most of them who the Lions added to their roster this year (besides Stafford), they would have no clue. They just hop on the bandwagon and love the Cowboys (not deservingly), Favre (way overated, always has been), and Belicheck (who deserves it but also whom they dogged when at Cleveland). Then there are the teams they don't like or love to ignore Lions, Jaguars, Seattle, Arizona (they hated them in the Superbowl and are dogging them already this year.)
I would love to see them actually compare 08 Lions to 09 Lions at positions other than QB. Talk about how the linebackers and secondary are completely different than last year (that alone will bring a couple of W's). Talk about Culpepper looking in shape and sharp instead of automatically discounting him because he came out of retirement overweight. Talk about the new coaching staff who it feels to me are light years ahead of last years. Anyways this is my non-sensical rant for the week. Thanks for enduring.


Jamie

Mark July 20, 2009 at 1:31 PM  

If the Lions manage to win a couple games to start off the season, they very well might be able to win 8.

If they go winless in their first several games before the break however, I think they are looking at a 2-14 season.

It's funny the way things break one way or the other.

I do think, with their strong passing offense they have a shot to out-gun the Saints and against the Vikings/Redskins weak pass offenses, and relatively weak pass defenses (compared to their rush defenses), they also match-up well enough to have a shot at beating one or the other at home.

So it will be at least interesting to watch play-out at least. we'll see.

Ty July 20, 2009 at 2:45 PM  

Jamie--

Of course I really, really hesitate to use the word "moron"--or "idiot" or anything else like that--when describing media and football types. It's not because I'm some kind of uptight, sanctimonius goody-two-shoes, but because this blog has really opened up my eyes in terms of what's needed. When you spend every waking minute at least partially in tune with the very, very latest about YOUR TEAM, it's relatively easy to outsmart the "experts" at knowing your team. Adam Schein's take on the Lions is probably a darn sight better than what I'd come up with, if you stopped me and asked me for my take on, say, the Chargers.

Beyond that, when you're writing for an audience who expects you to come hard with "strong takes" (his words from that very article), they're expecting Jim Rome-style entertainment. Nuanced discussions of the changes in the defensive backfield and offensive line two-deeps simply don't play the way "The Lions suck, they've got no shot" does.

Unfortuantely, this is where we as Lions fans are prisoners of the sports world's groupthink; as long as the Lions aren't winning, they're going to "suck". As long as they "suck", they won't be worth putting in real time and research to most analysts. It's a shame--but it's why I started this blog! Here is a place where we can talk, honestly, openly, and intelligently about a franchise that few others will even give the time of day.

Just to be clear, you're not wrong at all, Jaime--I wouldn't have written all this if I thought Schein's "strong take" was on the money. Still, just remember that it takes a special kind of mental problem to follow this team as faithfully as we do; we can hardly expect others to do the same. ;)

Peace
Ty

wwpope,  July 20, 2009 at 2:45 PM  

the fins added parcels, the most coveted GM in the last 20 years of the NFL. the wildcat was not a prouct of genius coaches, it was a shot in the dark by a desperate coaching staff on a flight back from an arizona drubbing to drop them to drop them to 0-2.

mike turner was the most coveted free agent last year, ryan was the #3 overall pick.

on a scale of one to ten, this teams D line is a 2. their secondary is a 2. this team is going to get lit up like the 4th of july on a regular basis, i don't care who you're starting at LB. not to mention that as soon as one of those LB's get hurt you're starting cody spencer. the offense is the ONLY hope for wins, and when you're in that situation you're not going to win very many games.

that being said, calvin is still a god and i hope he has 2,000 yards and 15 TD's.

bottom line, we'll be taking taylor mays in the top 3 in next years' draft.

Ty July 20, 2009 at 2:52 PM  

Mark--

I think you're right, winning one of the first two would be an almost incalculable boost to the players and fans. It goes triple if, as I expect, Stafford is at the helm when it happens. If he's under center when the Lions get their first win in two calendar years . . . he'll be cemented as the avatar of what is good and new and right about this franchise.

You're right that that momentum will be hard to build, but the back half of the Lions schedule couldn't possibly be easier. As I said in the comments to the second of my prediction folks, we face the teams that held the #2, #3, #4, #5, #6 and #10 overall picks in the draft this spring . . . that's bad. Even if the Lions get to the bye week without a single win, I think they'll win more than two games.

Peace
Ty

Ty July 20, 2009 at 3:37 PM  

wwpope--

First, thanks for reading--and double thanks for commenting! The more voices we have in the discussion, the better the discussion is.

First, let me point out that Parcells wasn't the most coveted GM in football; he was the most coveted coach--his track record as a GM isn't really that great. Mostly, he gets "his guys" from his last team, and tries to coach up whoever's left, and then quickly cuts out everyone he doesn't like, and then drafts new "his guys". We saw this exact same approach with Rod Marinelli . . . Rod Marinelli just so happens to not be Bill Parcells.

Morever, Parcells isn't actually the GM of the Dolphins--that's Jeff Ireland, who he brought with him from the Cowboys. He's also not the coach--that's Tony Sparano, again who he brought over from the Cowboys. The offensive coordnator , Dan Henning, has been around professional football for over forty years. The Wildcat, as he ran it, is nothing new in football--it's very similar to the Wing T offense, which is as about as old as football. Dolphins QB coach David Lee was the OC for Arkansas in 2006, and he was the one who deployed the Wildcat there.

My point here is that it's having Lee, a college OC who creatively employed an ancient offense, on staff, and Dan Henning, a guy who's seen and done it all in football, running the offense, and Tony Sparano, a coach smart enough to trust the staff he helped hire, all had to be in place in order for the Wildcat to make onto the field. The "blueprint" isn't "run the Wildcat"--as you said, that was a response to the team's offensive ineffectiveness. The "blueprint" is to have a coaching staff that is both creative enough to think outside of the box and maximize the available talent, and experienced enough to know when, where, and how to break the rules.

As far as Turner and Ryan goes, I certainly don't disagree that they were major--and majorly successful--additions. My point was that nobody in the football world--fans or media--were giving the Falcons any kind of credit for making those moves before the season started. Lord knows the Lions thought they'd waltz in and whip a franchise that was, frankly, a train wreck in 2007.

As far as the defense goes, I share your concerns about the defensive line and the defensive backs; I love Avril and Delmas, and expect White and Buchanon to be solid--after that we have either known scrubs or unknown quantites. I would, however, submit that you'd see Jordon Dizon or DeAndre Levy out on the field LONG before Cody Spencer took a snap that counted.

Moreover, don't discount the effect that Gunther will have; this system is going to be completely different from anything you've seen the Lions run since the days of Mike Cofer. Some of the Lions vets (like Sims) are going to look completely different in this new defense, I'm sure of it.

Bottom line: even if the Lions only muster a handful of wins, they're going to be a lot more competitive, a lot more consistently, then they were last year. Dismissing the possibility that they could go from "really bad" to "pretty good", solely on the basis of the fact that they were "really bad", when we JUST SAW two teams go from "really bad" to "pretty good" last season, is folly.

Peace
Ty

Anonymous,  July 20, 2009 at 10:10 PM  

I agree with your take on the Lions and the national media. The reason why I chose to comment is to give you some props
Ty. I really enjoy reading your blog and reading your posts on mlive. I wish our Detroit sports writers were as articulate, passionate, knowledgeable, concise, and thorough; without being petty, derisive, sardonic and sarcastic.

Sean

Dave,  July 20, 2009 at 11:05 PM  

Idk about 8 wins... or 7,6 for that matter. What I do know is that this team is much improved and if Schwartz is as smart a coach as he's being made out to be we will win 2 games on that alone.

People forget how much of the game is coaching. If they're dedicated to the run and can control the ball using Linehan's 2 TE sets and can keep the defense off the field, I think we will be in a lot of games. Schwartz has mentioned he most likely won't be calling the plays on either side unless needed, so if Linehan and Cunningham can get on the same page things should be good. The increase in blitzing should help create more turnovers (especially INT's) and give the offense more chances to score. There is great WR depth on the team (there should be as we've acquired quite a few recently) and hopefully a great TE in Pettigrew that will give Linehan a lot of options in the passing game.

I'm going to say 4-5 wins this year simply because the line on both sides of the ball isn't where it should be. Offensively it's possible we could see a decent line if Linehan does use 2 TE's a lot to protect the tackles but unless Maywand can sign another starting quality/very good backup DT and DE that defensive line is going to be scary bad.

I know fans don't want to trust this team, but c'mon drink a LITTLE kool-aid!

JP Banner July 21, 2009 at 7:27 AM  

I agree on almost everything you say. The Lions have made many additions to the team, the D-Line may not be good, or great but it is defiantly beefier with Grady Jackson at NT. Avril on one side and White on the other isn't a bad combination, the problem is the DT spot. It depends if the new coaching staff wants anything to do with Darby, or wants to give Andre Fluellen a shot or not.

I'd wager that the Lions have a Grade A LB Core, and Bullocks and Delmas could solidify the FS and SS positions. The only spot is the second starting CB spot, who will take it? We know Buchannon will have the first spot, but who will have the opposite? Anthony Henry? Eric King? I mean thats the one spot that confuses me more.

Ty July 21, 2009 at 8:52 AM  

Sean--

Thank you, thank you, thank you for your kind words; they mean the world to me. Now there are some Detroit sportswriters who can write circles around me, and still do a great job of being balanced. Killer, John Niyo, Dave Birkett, Nick Cotsonika, and Greg Eno all come immediately to mind; of course, there are others. There are other writers that make their hay by using their voice to boo and throw tomatoes, no matter what . . . I don't have much use for those guys. I've never understood the point of following a team so closely, and ragging on every move they make. How can someone keep that level of negativity up? It must be exhausting.

Of course, I'm blogging as a fan. My passion can, will, and should come through loud and clear. I try to be balanced and realistic--especially when I'm wearing my Journalism Hat. However, this is my blog, my space, and my voice; I choose to support the team that I support, and root for the team that I root for. Above all, I hope that I inspire others to do the same.

Thanks again, Sean!

Peace
Ty

Ty July 21, 2009 at 9:07 AM  

Dave--

Great breakdown! I think you're spot on; the improvement in coaching is going to make a huge difference. I think the biggest difference between the 2007 team that went 7-9, and the 2008 team that went 0-16, is the difference between having Mike Martz gameplanning and strategizing, and having Jim Coletto and Kippy Brown trying to run Martz's playbook.

In the Kool-Aid department, I think Andre Fluellen is going to really surprise some people--he's incredibly athletic, and should be a little bigger and stronger this year. Word is Five-O is starting to turn the corner a bit, as well. Between those two, Grady Jackson for 12 games, Sammie Hill, and Chuck Darby, I think you could see an effective situational rotation thing--or, yeah, you could see "scary bad".

I'm not nearly as worried about DE as most people are; I think White and Avril are each double-digit sack talents, and this will be their first year playing together (at the same time, since White was out injured when Avril came on last year).

Peace
Ty

Ty July 21, 2009 at 9:19 AM  

JP Banner--

Thanks for reading and commenting!

As I just said to Dave, I agree that the DT spot is one of the most worrisome positions for me; I don't think we have the natural big-bodied dudes that we'll need to run the new system. However, as I've said before, they simply couldn't fill all the holes; it's not possible in one offseason.

Corner, to me, is THE scariest position. Killer's been insisting from the get-go that Anthony Henry will probably slide back to safety if Manuel or Bullocks don't step up, and that leaves Buchanon as your #1, Eric King as your #2, and Keith Smith as the nickel . . . YIKES. God forbid any of them get hurt!

Peace
Ty

Anonymous,  July 21, 2009 at 12:23 PM  

Ty,

I appreciate you calming me down a little. I don't call Schein a moron because I think he knows nothing about football. I'm sure he does know more about the Chargers than I do. The difference is I don't spout off about the Chargers. If he is not up to date about the Leos than he shouldn't sa anything. Now if it is required of him to talk about the Lions than he should do a little research.
The Lions do deserve what they are getting but these people get paid pretty well to "enlighten" us fans and when they just casually dismiss teams or players or coaches then that is a problem.
We hear all the time about how great a coach Bill Belicheck is and about his "genius". So did he wake up the morning after the Browns fired him with 30 more points added to his IQ because he was dogged out hard when he was there. I just feel that these pundits should dig a little deeper.

Thanks again,


Jamie

Ty July 21, 2009 at 2:00 PM  

Jamie--

Frankly, I'd never read any of Schein's stuff prior to this article. From doing a little perusing, I can't say I'm overly impressed by the rest of his stuff either . . .

I'm just saying, as general policy, I like to be really sure before I call a dude a moron . . . and you're right, I usually hesitate to call somebody a genius too. Especially in the lightning-quick, dog-eat-dog world of the NFL, being at the right place at the right time influences success almost as much as merit does.

Peace
Ty

goldsmith.jamie July 21, 2009 at 2:22 PM  

Ty,

You are right. Just because what he said may have been moronic doesn't make him a moron. Also it does take one to know one :). Your reply to Dave was spot on. I believe Martz made the best with what he had and we moved the ball pretty well with him as OC (and we were playing from behind quickly in a couple of those blowouts). That was Rod's biggest mistake, bowing to pressure from Millen because Martz called Millen to the mat with the Stanton pick and the latter IR debacle. Besides you have to admit the Lions' offense was a lot more fun to watch 2 years ago than last year's snoozefest (other than the occasional bomb to CJ)

wwpope,  July 22, 2009 at 9:16 AM  

don't disagree with much of what you said, ty, but parcells is running that team from top to bottom. the coaches are just puppets. he's drafting the players he wants, he's probably telling them what plays to package for the week, he's a control freak (i personally think he's a d-bag, but whatever)

i think you're being self-deceptive about levy and dizon. i still have hope for dizon, but levy is a rookie and neither of those guys could really play the middle. as it stands i'm betting cody spencer will be our backup MLB, and that is scary.

our depth at DL, LB, and CB is laughably weak. i know you can't fix it all at once, but we are one injury away from having a soft middle again, and you just can't win that way.

Ty July 22, 2009 at 1:51 PM  

Jamie--

Actually, I've always thought that Rod hired Martz because he wanted somebody to 'take care of that offense crap', so to speak. So, he hired the best available offensive coordinator . . . only to find out that he didn't work well with Martz on a personal basis, the Max Q pass-pass-pass offense was an awful fit with Marinelli's grind-it-out-no-mistakes defense, and he basically couldn't stand the guy.

After they rode Martz out on a rail, they had Colletto and Brown collaborate on running the Martz playbook. They basically did what Martz refused to do: cut out the most creative plays, get rid of some of the "OKAY NOW FIVE GUYS GO IN MOTION" window dressing, and change the playaclling to balance out the run/pass ratio. On paper, it seemed to be the right antidotes to the offense/defense scheme mismatch. But once they put it all on tape in the preseason, opposing defensive coordinators had the Lions pegged all season long.

When Martz's offense was at its peak in St. Louis, I remember reading that Martz's weekly gameplans averaged 70% turnover--that is, on any given week, only about 30% of the plays that were in previous week's playbook would remain in the gameplan. It's painfully obvious that without a simiar level of opponent research, strategization, and gameplanning, the offense simply wasn't as effective. I'm also going to risk a bunch of tomatoes being hurled in my direction by suggesting that Jon Kitna was a lot better than most Lions fans gave him credit for--and QB play makes a HUGE difference in offensive efficiency.

Peace
Ty

Ty July 22, 2009 at 1:57 PM  

wwpope--

You'll get no disagreement from me that Bill Parcells runs that team with an iron fist. My points were really just these:

* The Dolphins and Falcons were really, really, bad in 2007

* The Dolphins and Falcons each made sweeping changes on every level of the organization prior to the 2008 season

* Very few members of the media, or fans that I talked to, gave either the Dolphins or Falcons any chance to be good in 2008

* The Falcons and Dolphins were both really good in 2008

* The Lions were really, really, bad in 2008

* The Lions made sweeping changes on every level of the organization prior to the 2009 season

* Very few members of the media, or fans that I talked to, give the Lions any chance of being good in 2009

That's it. That's my point. Given that we've seen the Falcons and Dolphins EACH do it JUST LAST YEAR, how can anyone say it's not possible?

Peace
Ty

popeww,  July 22, 2009 at 2:46 PM  

hey, you're taking a stand and planting your flag, i have no beef with that. most guys won't say anything definite, even national media types. i'll plant my flag on 2 wins, and you can feel free to put me on blast when they squeeze out 6 or 7 and i'll be happy with taking the heat because at least my team got back to respectability. i'm pretty sure we'll be having a hard time trading down from 1 to 3 so we can draft taylor mays next year.

the fins and the falcons were just bad teams. we were in how many games last year past halftime? 3 or 4? we are an expansion team right now. you cant win games if teams can eat you up inside, and i just don't see us getting stops on 3rd and 2 with this lineup. linebackers can't make plays in the backfield if they don't have lanes to get through.

i hate to be a negative nancy on this, but i just don't see any reasonable turn of events that keeps us in games on defense.

but know that i really, really hope i'm wrong.

Ty July 22, 2009 at 4:03 PM  

popeww--

One thing you'll learn about me is that I very, very rarely put people on blast. Since going from zero wins to one win is literally an infinite improvement, I guess predicting seven wins is bold indeed. The one last thing I'll say about the Fins and Dolphins is that the '07 Dolphins were 1-15, and that one win came from a freak big play in overtime in Week 15. They were one play away from 0-16 themselves, and in the very next year went 11-5.

Again, I'm not saying the Lions have 8-8 in the bag, I'm just saying that going 0-16 in 2008 doesn't automatically doom the Lions to a couple-three wins in 2009.

FWIW I was beginning to get on board with the Taylor Mays thing before he declared he was going back for his senior year, but we might have already have our Mays with Delmas. I'm not sure what the point of having a pair of monster safeties would be when there will be much bigger needs all over the roster. Still, if he's the slam-dunk best player available when we're on the clock, you never know.

Then again, there's a reason why I don't touch draft stuff at time of the year. If Andre Smith can go from being a slam-dunk #1 overall pick in February to a laughingstock who was butt-lucky to go #6 overall in April, who knows what'll happen to Mays? He could have a meh year, and be there for us in the third round. There're just way, way, way too many variables to say what'll happen ten months from now.

Peace
Ty

goldsmith.jamie July 22, 2009 at 4:14 PM  

Ty,

You are probably more right than me on the scenario of Marinelli hiring Martz, and maybe Martz's O philosophy did not jive with Marinelli's D philosophy, but the Lions Defense never jived with Marinelli's philosophy either and if Martz had stayed last year we would have won some games. I really think the whole Stanton situation was the final straw but it sure seems that Martz was right about that one as Stanton still hasn't shown much.

Also on another note. I just saw an Adam Schein video about he Lions and it eerily seems like he was reading your site yesterday as he showed up more prepared and knowledgeable. He pegged the Lions at 5-6 wins (not much over 5 yesterday) but gave them a lot more love. You can see it on Lions Gab. So kudos to Mr. Schein.( and if this video came out before my initail comments yesterday, than I definitely have to eat crow)

Jamie

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