completely useless waste of time, part I

>> 7.09.2009

The complete and total lack of football activity this time of year—this is the off-est part of the offseason—is maddening.  No free agency, no contract situations, no draft prospects, no nothing.  Not only is nothing happening now, there’s nothing to anticipate either.  No rumors to monger, no tidbits to share, no quotes to dissect, absolutely nothing to uselessly speculate on.  The coaching staff?  In place.  The schemes?  Drawn up.  The roster?  Set, for the most part, for this season.  The schedule?  Posted online for the world to see.

Hmm . . . are you pondering what I’m pondering?

Week 1: at New Orleans

The season opener feels uncomfortably like ritual sacrifice.  The Lions have gone an absolutely appalling 8-50 on the road since the dawn of the Millen era, and—just like last year—they’re traveling into the Deep South to take on an offensive powerhouse of a team.  Last season, quarterback Drew Brees shredded NFL defenses for 5,069 yards and 34 touchdowns.  Completing 65 percent of his passes, and throwing only 17 interceptions, Brees elevated his usual effectiveness to historic levels, falling just 15 yards shy of Dan Marino’s single season passing record.  While WRs David Patten and Terrence Copper left via free agency, the Saints return Marques Colston and Robert Meachem, and managed to retain Lance Moore and Devery Henderson.  The Saints also took great steps to bolster their long-floundering secondary, drafting CB Malcom Jenkins with their first-round pick, and signing CB Jabari Greer, S Darren Sharper, and S Pierson Prioleau.

This is a nightmare matchup for the Lions.  Their rebuilt secondary is one of the biggest concerns going into the season, and they’ll open the season in a snakepit against the most prolific passing offense in football.  Brees is too good, and has too many options, to be rattled by the Lions’ blitz.  The Saints’ biggest weakness, the secondary, figures to be much improved.  The only window of hope is, as usual, Megatron.  Jabari Greer and Randall Gay are solid NFL cornerbacks, but neither cracks 6 feet or 200 pounds.  The only corner they have who can match up physically is Jenkins, but this will be his first game in the NFL. 

A season-opening victory would be a huge, huge moment for the team and the fans.  It could provide the fuel for a run to respectability, much like last year’s shellacking by Atlanta unraveled everything.  Ultimately, though, the Lions will make it respectable--but I don’t see them winning. 

L, 21-34

Week 2: vs. Minnesota

The Lions will open their home schedule against the Super Bowl-bound Vikings.  They’ll be the Super Bowl-bound Vikings because they are always the Super Bowl-bound Vikings, every single year for the past fifteen years, no matter how many years they play about .500 football.  With the Lions boasting a new coach, new quarterback, new logo, new uniforms, and once again welcoming Brett Favre to Ford Field, the atmosphere for this game is going to be unbelievable.  If the Lions can get anything going in the first quarter, the crowd will lift them the rest of the way.

A win here couldn’t possibly be overhyped.  Breaking the losing streak would be like winning the Super Bowl.  If it happened in the first home game, it would mean a statewide celebration for days.  It would really, truly usher in a new era for the franchise.

Now, the Lions can’t run against the Williams Wall, because nobody can run against the Williams Wall.  The Lions can’t stop All Day, because nobody can stop All Day.  Jared Allen will eat Jeff Backus’s lunch.  Bernard Berrien and Percy Harvin are both way too fast for Anthony Henry.  Brett Favre is Brett Favre.

W, 17-14

Week 3: vs. Washington

Buoyed by the incredible thrill of winning their first game since December 23rd, 2007—The Day of Destiny for Washington, DC!—the Lions will host the Washington Redskins.  The Freemasons, Illuminati, numerology, and Mayan calendar aside, the Lions will take on Martin Mayhew’s old team for the first time since he ascended to the GM position.  Mayhew wasn’t much help the last time the Lions played the ‘Skins, though—Washington administered a 34-3 euthanization.  The Lions were completely dominated in every phase of the game by that Redskins team.  Now, both teams have changed coaches since then, but the Skins’ roster is superficially the same: QB Jason Campbell, RB Clinton Portis, MLB London Fletcher, etc. 

However, the ‘Skins made some big waves this offseason.  They signed monster DT Albert Haynesworth to a vault-busting megacontract, and picked up OG help with OGs Jeremy Bridges and, to the Lions’ chagrin, Derrick Dockery.  They overhauled their special teams, picking up P Hunter Smith and K Shaun Suisham.  They also drafted OLB Brian Orakpo with their first-round pick.

The ‘Skins are a much better team than you might think—playing in one of the most brutal divisions in recent memory, they managed to win as many games as they lost last year, yet still finished last in the NFC East.  Undoubtedly improved on-paper, and with a rare season of continuity in the coaching staff benefitting both the coaches and the players, the Skins will be a tough test.  Still, Campbell and second-year head coach Jim Zorn are both feeling the pressure; the Redskins reportedly made offseason overtures both to former Broncos QB Jay Cutler—and his former coach, Mike Shanahan.

The Lions’ best hope will be to contain RB Clinton Portis.  The rift between him and Zorn has made national headlines, and while he says their working relationship is fine, there’s no doubt that Portis is no longer the apple of his coach’s eye, as was the case with Gibbs.  If Portis struggles out of the gate, the Skins may abandon the run—and if Kevin Smith can get around Albert Haynesworth--the Lions could end up controlling the clock.  However, I just went against on-paper reality to hand us a win over Minny; I can’t do it back-to-back.

L, 10-20

Week 4: at Chicago

The Bears ended up with what might have been the Lions’ biggest offseason prize: former Broncos QB Jay Cutler.  For the first time, practically ever, the Bears have a legitimate top-flite quarterback under center.   His arm has given teams fits, and combined with the excellent young running back Matt Forte, the Bears’ offense is probably going to brutalize the Lions’ defense, especially late in the game. 

Now, since the Bears traded away practically their entire draft to get Cutler, they didn’t add much youth to their roster.  With nearly no high picks available to shore up their offensive line, the Bears signed free agent OT Orlando Pace.  No,w Pace isn’t what he once was, but I have to believe he’s still better than many tackles in the NFL, at least for this season.  They also did a “free agency trade”, where former Bears OT John St. Clair signed with the Browns, and the Browns’ old OT, Kevin Shaffer, signed with the Bears.  Finally, they picked up OT Frank Omiyale, from Carolina.  On the defensive side of the ball, added another former Ram, OLB Pisa Tinoisamoa, and S Josh Bullocks—twin brother of Lion Daniel Bullocks—to replace the departed Mike Brown.

Matching them up, again, things look tough.  Cutler’s great at going deep to the outside, and I just don’t like the Lions corners in deep man coverage.  Then again, the Bears wideouts don’t scare anybody either—Marty Booker is gone, and the only WRs on the roster who caught a pass in the NFL last year are Devin Hester and Rashied Davis.  Hester is the #1 WR, though he has yet to prove he belongs anywhere on the field besides behind a return wedge.  If the Lions' corners can blanket the Bears' receivers, and the blitz can beat the Bears’ rotisseried veteran OTs, AND Forte doesn’t beat the Lions by himself, the Lions do have a chance.  Megatron is Megatron, of course, and the Lions’ increased bulk up front could give them an opportunity to control the ball. The Bears’ defense simply isn’t what it once was, and adding Tinoisamoa won’t address the Bears’ uninspired performances as of late.

On the other hand, I hear they have a hot new DL coach who can really whip his guys into shape.

L, 14-17

Week 5: vs. Pittsburgh

Yeah, this’ll leave a mark.

L, 12-42

Week 6: at Green Bay

The Packers are an interesting team.  As usual, GM Ted Thompson made no major moves in free agency—the Packers lost no one of significance, and added no one of significance (except perhaps C Duke Preston).  The Pack merely retained S Atari Bigby, then continued to build through the draft.  They selected DT B.J. Raji with the 9th overall pick, and followed that up with OLB Clay Matthews with the 26th pick.  These two picks will assist in the Pack’s transition to a 3-4 defense, in what is no doubt the biggest upheaval in Green Bay since . . . let me see . . . hmm, when was the last time the Pack faced a major transition?

Oh that’s right: after years of waiting for his rightful succession, QB Aaron Rodgers up and usurped Lord Favre’s throne.  Though Rodgers was mildly panned in 2008 for not carrying his team to more victories, those who watched the Pack closely saw that Rodgers looked like the real deal—it was the wet-tissue defense that let the Pack down, time after time.  Rodgers has been called the “human Juggs machine” by his recievers—and, oh yes, unlike the Bears, those recievers are really really good.  Between former Western Michigan standout Greg Jennings, and veteran stalwart Donald Driver, the Packers boast what might be the most underrated receiver combo in football.

If the Packers’ aging, depleted offensive line can hold off the Lions’ blitz, it’s going to be a long afternoon for the Lions’ defense.  Multidimensional RB Ryan Grant looks to bounce back after a disappointing 2008, and Rodgers is sure to have a little more of that carry-his-team mojo after a full distraction-free offseason as the unquestioned starter.  The least known quantity on the field will be the Packers' defense, which has searched for an identity for a long time.  The Pack have rotated defensive coordinators what seems like annually for what seems like a decade, but their latest is a doozy.  Dom Capers, a brilliant defensive coach with a resume a mile long, has taken over the Packers’ defensive roster—largely remarkable for its aging cornerbacks, passle of decent young linebackers, and pass rusher extraordinaire Aaron Kampman--and plugged it into his famed zone blitzing 3-4 scheme.  Oddly, that type of defense is suddenly all the rage again, after his Steelers (as DC) and Panthers (as HC) made it trendy the first time around.  Aaron Kampman has been publicly terse—and, it’s rumored, privately furious—about the switch from 4-3 DE to 3-4 ROLB.

At this point in the season, it will be pretty obvious if the switch is working—and, if it is, the Lions’ offensive line is going to struggle to protect Matt Stafford.  If Raji is as good as advertised, the Lions’ offensive line is going to struggle to open holes for Kevin Smith.  On the balance, there is plenty of wiggle room for a Lions victory—but most of it involves the Packers failing, something they rarely do much of in Lambeau.

L, 20-28

That brings us to the bye week, and the Lions have just one victory by my accounting—and that one was a total freebie!  Now to be fair, I think they’ll certainly take at least one of these home games--I put it on Minny just because A) it’d be an awesome story and 2) screw the Vikings.  I’m really going to have a hard time being talked into any more than 2 total wins by this point . . . I just don’t see it.  I think the Lions will do better on the back nine, but this is a brutal stretch.  I really, really, really hope Lions fans show the team some patience that it admittedly, has not deserved.

11 comments:

Jimmerz,  July 9, 2009 at 3:24 PM  

Glad to see you come back to reality, Ty. Some of your recent posts actually had me thinking you were eating the cornbread.

Ty July 9, 2009 at 3:58 PM  

Oh man, believe me, I'm BAKING all the cornbread about Schwartz, Mayhew, etc. I absolutely, one-hundred-percent believe that these guys are the ones who will finally turn it around for this franchise. But, we are starting off on the road against a likely playoff team, hosting the Vikes (who really are a threat to go all the way), hosting another probable playoff team, and facing two divisional road games sandwiching the reigning world champions. Every team on this list is either going to the playoffs, or will be on the wild card bubble with a week or two left . . . I just don't see a week we can even surprise anybody, except maybe at Chicago if you don't buy the Cutler mania.

As much as I think the Lions are going to be improved, this might be the toughest first six games that anybody in the NFL plays. I can be as optimistic as I want, but facts is facts. I think tomorrow, you'll see I'm still pretty high on 2009.

Peace
Ty

Neil July 9, 2009 at 5:55 PM  

Damn it, Ty, I was going to do something like this in order to fill the down time and here you are beating me to it, and better too. Perhaps I will still do a jokier version but I suppose this is what I get for slacking.

Anyway, yeah, I've been looking at the Minnesota game all along as the one we can steal. If you think back to last year, we played the Vikings better than we did anyone else and should have won the first meeting(you know, that oh so fun game when Orlovsky decided to take a quiet stroll out of the back of the end zone and Leigh Bodden was nailed for a bogus pass interference call). I don't know, I guess I just feel like that's the game we can win and it's probably critical for the morale of everyone involved in this deal that they get that win as soon as possible.

Pacer July 10, 2009 at 11:27 PM  

Ty-tough sledding through those 1st 6 games. While I don't predict it happening I would not be surprised to see the Lions overcome the Saints in a weird and wild one. It's not that I think the Lions are better but in the past 2 years I have seen the Saints blow some games to inferior teams through sloppy play. The Lions 1st game with a new regime and a host of new players, the Saints staff warning their team against complacency, the players saying "but these are the Lions" etc. Any given Sunday.

Here is another Mayhew link that is somewhat obscure as it is not from a football source. It has some good background on Mayhew. It does however have a link within the article that leads to Bill Polian's take on Mayhew. The link is actually on M-Live and appeared on September 26. I had posted the article a week prior and when I suggested Mayhew would make a good GM the M-Livers pretty much buried me. I notice a lot of them are not exactly friends of Mayhew now.

Enjoy
http://amlawdaily.typepad.com/amlawdaily/2008/09/former-pro-foot.html

Chuck,  July 12, 2009 at 10:57 AM  

Hey Ty
Found your blog from MLive, keep it up its good.
I agree with you about the Vikings. If the team gains a little confidence and can stay in games past the 1st quarter, I think they can beat Chicago at home. We will know how much the Lions have improved after the Saints game. It was very obvious that the entire team, (coaches and players) was not on the same page last year. Anyway i'm thinking they can win 2 of their first 6 games, with perhaps 4 to 6 wins total for the year.

Ty July 13, 2009 at 9:14 AM  

Chuck--

Thanks! I think Chicago is definitely beatable, I just think the combination of a young stud running back and a young gunslinger-type QB with a big deep arm is going to spell trouble for the defense, especially on the road. This '09 Lions team has just enough talent that when things fall their way, they'll be able to surprise people--but I'm not sure they'll be able to overcome adversity like road games against divisional rivals, just yet.

Peace
Ty

Anonymous,  July 13, 2009 at 1:10 PM  

they've done enough this offseason to keep me around for this year....if they can win at least 4-5 games and be competetive in the rest, i'll consider that progress....that kind of perf will keep me around for next year....those, however, are my minimum requirements [insert foot in mouth here]....can't wait to see what happens in TC this year....GO LIONS!

Joe Willy July 13, 2009 at 5:56 PM  

I think the Vikings make sense as a win. Last year they came the closest to losing against the 0-fers and the Lions have vastly improved since those 2 games. I also think they could steal 1 of the 2 away games either at Chicago or GB. The NFC North will be a fun division to watch this year. I have to go make some more Kool-Aid now.

Cory July 14, 2009 at 10:34 AM  

I actually think that the Lions have 4 games that they could win here, and so I would give them 2 wins by the by. I think they could win against Minn, Washington (I think that now that they actually game plan on D we can make them pay for not addressing QB and the Offensive is now good enough to keep them in the game), Greenbay (their transition is going to take some time), and da Bears (They have pretty considerable issues at DL - unless Marinelli can make Tommy Harris healthy - and DB). The only game I don't see a chance at all for them to win is New Orleans (for the reason Ty mentioned) and Pitt (they just don't lose games they aren't supposed to lose).

Ty July 14, 2009 at 12:01 PM  

Cory--

I certainly think that Chicago and Green Bay are beatable--but I don't think they go 2-of-3 in division when they play the two lesser teams on the road and the probable division champ at home.

A lot of people are sleeping on Washington, but that is a talented, veteran roster. If the Giants or Boys slip even an inch, the Skins are a playoff team. Oh, and I do believe that Jason Campbell--given the same offensive system for like, five minutes in a row--can be a very effective NFL starter. Plus, like, Haynesworth.

Peace
Ty

Ty July 14, 2009 at 4:54 PM  

Joe Willy--

I definitely think that Minnesota's going to be very, very strong with Favre, and pretty tough even without him, but I think Ford Field is going to be a snakepit Week 2, I really do. If the Lions are even respectable in Week 1, and they get it going in the fourth quarter, I think the crowd can rattle Minny and give Stafford a lift.

Keep in mind, "On any given sunday . . .". Of course, the Lions COULD win just about any of these (except maybe Pittsburgh, I just don't see that happening). The point is which ones I think they WILL win, and if you're talking about beating Minnesota and then splitting GB and CHI on the road, then you're either talking about the Lions going 4-2 in a much improved NFC North (extremely unlikely), or you're talking about the Lions losing at home to both GB and CHI, which I also find unlikely.

Peace
Ty

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