the mystery of the #1 overall pick

>> 3.23.2009

Pertinent "facts" in the case:

1) Tom Kowalski reports that the Lions have begun negotiations with their #1 pick.  The wording of the headline and opening paragraphs suggest that this means the Lions have already settled on a player, but the actual quotes reveal that the Lions are talking to all of the several possible #1 pick candidates . . . the headline is true, just a little misleading (EDIT: as of 4 A.M., the headline and first two paragraphs have been altered to more accurately reflect the situation.  Looks like Tommy got a slap on the wrist from his editor).

2) PFT reported shortly after Tom that there is a persistent rumor that the Lions "are focused in on" USC QB Mark Sanchez, and not Matt Stafford.  That may well be the case, but IMO drafting Sanchez #1 overall would be lunacy.  Between this and the Raji workout, my guess is that the Lions are looking at moving down--or up.

3) "KFFL has learned the Detroit Lions will take Baylor OT Jason  Smith with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2009 NFL Draft".  This, I believe, is a total shot in the dark by one of the best football news aggregators around.  As far as I know, KFFL is essentially a service that trolls the internet for you, the Fantasy Football player, so you can have all the latest info on transactions, injuries, depth charts, etc.  KFFL doesn't typically break stories because they don't typically have inside info.  In this case, however, they are sticking their neck way, WAY out there.  No comments, no followup, not even a cite of a "team source", just an ESPN-style "KFFL has learned".  You know, dipping my toe into the "new media" has given me tremendous respect for the "old media"--and frankly I'm appalled by this.  You can't just make stuff up, hoping it comes true.  I hope for their sake that they're right on this--and if they're not, I hope there's a strong backlash against KFFL for it.  Any time something like this happens, it puts bloggers back in the "According to Internet reports" ghetto.

As far as my take goes, it's all a smokescreen.  The Lions were always going to put an emphasis on signability-- and as Lewand said in the Killer piece, drafting a six-year deal loaded with guaranteed money when this is the last year of the CBA is playing with fire.  They're going to get started now, play all the candidates off each other, and with luck they'll sign the guy they want (Curry) to a lowball deal.

18 comments:

Anonymous,  March 23, 2009 at 10:19 AM  

Thus far, Mayhew hasnt even came out and said nothing as to what he will and wont, or may or mat NOT do. Even when information has been put out there and/or announcements, then he has Lewand do the talking a lot lately. I think Mayhew has his cards tight to his chest, and he is waiting to see what happens, if that means a team starts wanting to move up and offer a kings ransom, or if that means that one of the top 5 players speaks up and says, "hey I will take less"! Its good for the Lions to have all this talk, and specualtion going on.
I still have more and more researched this, and turly hope they draft 1(a)Smith OL, then 1(b)Lauranitus LB, and then 2(a) Hood (?)DT, or even CB.
Neal "The Anonymous"

Ty March 23, 2009 at 11:02 AM  

Neal--

I see there's a "Neal" following me; is that you? If so, check the little drop-down box right beneath the comment entry window. It says "Comment as:". If you're logged in, it will have your name as an option, like "Neal (Google)". If not logged in, there's an option called "Google/Blogger Account", and it should let you log in at that point.

You're right that Lewand has been out in front a lot more lately (like at the Peterson presser). To me, that gives the impression that Mayhew is in the bunker, working the phones and doing the evaluation, and Lewand is the face of the front office in the meantime.

Of course, many are instead taking this to mean that Lewand is pulling all the strings, and that must mean that all the decisions will be wrong (I love how so many fans judge decisions based on who made them, not whether or not they are sound) . . . I think it's the opposite. Mayhew is running the football ops, and I think they're in good hands.

Your draft there is solid. Smith and Laurenitis are good players that fit needs. I've been getting a vibe that the Lions might prefer Monroe over Smith, just because Monroe is a more established prospect with more experience run blocking in a pro-style offense. Still, hard to argue with the first two picks . . . I think that Laurenitis is sort of the insurance policy at this point; every mock I've seen in the past couple of weeks has had Oher, Maualuga, or one of the top CBs fall to us at 1.20 . . . I'd be okay with Laurenitis but he wouldn't represent an awesome get. Also, it's worth noting that he'd be strictly a two-down LB, and the Lions are looking at running more 3-3-5 . . . more on that very very soon.

Peace
Ty

Anonymous,  March 23, 2009 at 12:01 PM  

I have tryed, it doesnt work...
I dont know what I am doing?

Anyways, I think Lauranitis cone drill numbers, and excersizes, were so awsome. I saw on Football Post, or Deadspin an article comparing LB drill times meaning mroe than 40 times. I think Lauranitis could get better, too! Thsi guy posted outstandign numbers, comparing to some awsome vet LB'ers in the league now!
I say Monroe, then is fien with me, then LB, whomever, Cushing, or Best Available, and then second round DT.....

Neal

Anonymous,  March 23, 2009 at 12:45 PM  
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Anonymous,  March 23, 2009 at 1:29 PM  
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Ty March 23, 2009 at 2:18 PM  

Neal--

Yeah I saw that National Football Post article, too. I definitely think Laurenitis is a great prospect; he makes his hay with self-built strength, great instincts, and suddenness. That's the recipe for an excellent classic MLB prospect--it's just that to me, there's a huge dropoff between the incredible flexibility and potential of Curry, and the two-down solidity of Laurenitis. I'd take either as an instant, massive upgrade over Dizon, in a heartbeat. But Curry is a much better fit for what I presume to be Schwartz's defense, and for the franchise as a whole.

Peace
Ty

Anonymous,  March 23, 2009 at 6:56 PM  
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Anonymous,  March 23, 2009 at 6:58 PM  
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David M,  March 23, 2009 at 9:01 PM  
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Jim,  March 23, 2009 at 9:15 PM  
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Anonymous,  March 23, 2009 at 9:51 PM  
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Anonymous,  March 23, 2009 at 9:58 PM  

Great stuff as always Ty!

Come on Curry!!

-NO

Anonymous,  March 23, 2009 at 10:20 PM  
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Jim,  March 23, 2009 at 10:46 PM  
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minker March 23, 2009 at 11:52 PM  

Hey Ty,
Can you just remove these profane entries?
I look forward to reading your site daily and hate to see being wrecked with hateful commentary. They're not going to change. Let's not give them a forum to spew their filth.
Thanks Ty, I appreciate your work.
Minker

Ty March 24, 2009 at 12:05 AM  

Thanks everyone for the support and comments! I really appreciate it. I'm working on something big, keep watching this space . . .

Peace
Ty

Anonymous,  March 24, 2009 at 12:30 AM  

i'll give ya credit, ty. you didn't just remove my messages, you removed the other profane ones too. maybe you're not as irritating as i thought....on that note, your blog really isn't that bad, but i wish you would have named it something better than TLIW. also wish you'd quit signing your posts the same way every time, but whatever.

5Bakerstreet,  March 24, 2009 at 7:17 AM  

This particular article was written on Monday 3/23, another article written by the Associated Press on Tuesday 3/24 regarding Aaron Curry's proday and Aaron saying Detroit is a "beautiful situation" for him also said that the Lions hadn't begun contract negotiations with him.

This is after sources had stated that the Lions had begun contract negotiations with several top prospects. Hopefully, the Lions have also begun contract negotiations with Curry and the apparent disparity of statements is just a mixup in the timing the articles made it to print.

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